**Latest ensemble forecasts place Warsaw’s peak temperature on August 6, 2026, near 32–33 °C, producing the tight market split between those two bins.** Day-ahead numerical weather prediction runs (ECMWF, GFS, and regional models) show a warm southerly flow under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with only modest convective inhibition that could allow isolated afternoon showers. Small differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and the exact strength of the urban heat-island effect at the official measurement site create the 1 °C uncertainty that traders are pricing. Historical August maxima in Warsaw average ~24–26 °C, so the current setup represents a notable positive anomaly driven by the large-scale ridge; however, any earlier or stronger convection would shave 1–2 °C off the peak and shift probability toward the 32 °C outcome. The next model cycles and updated satellite imagery over the next 12–18 hours will be the primary catalysts for further market movement.