Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions on Saudi-linked traffic, announced in July 2026, have driven a sharp decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes falling 24% to the 266–269 range by early August and stabilizing near suppressed 2026 levels amid persistent security risks. Traders assign the highest implied probability to sub-160 outcomes, reflecting expectations of sustained rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and selective carrier avoidance that compresses aggregate flows. Closely contested bins between 160 and 200+ capture uncertainty over potential de-escalation, partial resumption by non-sanctioned vessels, or further volatility from regional tensions, with market-implied odds pricing in these competing catalysts ahead of the resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 17 de agosto?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 17 de agosto?
<160 32%
160-179 26%
180-199 25%
200+ 20%
NOVO
NOVO
23 ago 2026
<160
32%
160-179
22%
180-199
25%
200+
20%
<160 32%
160-179 26%
180-199 25%
200+ 20%
NOVO
NOVO
23 ago 2026
<160
$2,308 Vol.
32%
160-179
$1,516 Vol.
22%
180-199
$1,385 Vol.
25%
200+
$1,243 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions on Saudi-linked traffic, announced in July 2026, have driven a sharp decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes falling 24% to the 266–269 range by early August and stabilizing near suppressed 2026 levels amid persistent security risks. Traders assign the highest implied probability to sub-160 outcomes, reflecting expectations of sustained rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and selective carrier avoidance that compresses aggregate flows. Closely contested bins between 160 and 200+ capture uncertainty over potential de-escalation, partial resumption by non-sanctioned vessels, or further volatility from regional tensions, with market-implied odds pricing in these competing catalysts ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$6,453Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions on Saudi-linked traffic, announced in July 2026, have driven a sharp decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes falling 24% to the 266–269 range by early August and stabilizing near suppressed 2026 levels amid persistent security risks. Traders assign the highest implied probability to sub-160 outcomes, reflecting expectations of sustained rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and selective carrier avoidance that compresses aggregate flows. Closely contested bins between 160 and 200+ capture uncertainty over potential de-escalation, partial resumption by non-sanctioned vessels, or further volatility from regional tensions, with market-implied odds pricing in these competing catalysts ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$6,453Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions on Saudi-linked traffic, announced in July 2026, have driven a sharp decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes falling 24% to the 266–269 range by early August and stabilizing near suppressed 2026 levels amid persistent security risks. Traders assign the highest implied probability to sub-160 outcomes, reflecting expectations of sustained rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and selective carrier avoidance that compresses aggregate flows. Closely contested bins between 160 and 200+ capture uncertainty over potential de-escalation, partial resumption by non-sanctioned vessels, or further volatility from regional tensions, with market-implied odds pricing in these competing catalysts ahead of the resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions