Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including two ADNOC-owned tankers struck on August 13 amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, have driven a sharp drop in transits, with only two vessels recorded on August 14 and nine the prior day—well below August's average of 12 daily. This ongoing security environment, marked by Iranian efforts to control routing and U.S. naval measures, elevates war-risk insurance premiums and deters standard tanker movements, pushing trader consensus toward the 25-49 ships outcome at 59% implied probability. Broader energy market disruptions, including constrained crude flows representing a significant share of global oil trade, reinforce expectations of subdued volumes for the week of August 17, though any de-escalation could quickly alter routing incentives.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Ormuz de 17 de agosto?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Ormuz de 17 de agosto?
25-49 59%
<25 37%
50-74 3.3%
75-99 <1%
NOVO
NOVO
23 ago 2026
<25
37%
25-49
59%
50-74
3%
75-99
1%
100+
<1%
25-49 59%
<25 37%
50-74 3.3%
75-99 <1%
NOVO
NOVO
23 ago 2026
<25
$2,234 Vol.
37%
25-49
$1,496 Vol.
59%
50-74
$627 Vol.
3%
75-99
$878 Vol.
1%
100+
$468 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including two ADNOC-owned tankers struck on August 13 amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, have driven a sharp drop in transits, with only two vessels recorded on August 14 and nine the prior day—well below August's average of 12 daily. This ongoing security environment, marked by Iranian efforts to control routing and U.S. naval measures, elevates war-risk insurance premiums and deters standard tanker movements, pushing trader consensus toward the 25-49 ships outcome at 59% implied probability. Broader energy market disruptions, including constrained crude flows representing a significant share of global oil trade, reinforce expectations of subdued volumes for the week of August 17, though any de-escalation could quickly alter routing incentives.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Volume
$5,702Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including two ADNOC-owned tankers struck on August 13 amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, have driven a sharp drop in transits, with only two vessels recorded on August 14 and nine the prior day—well below August's average of 12 daily. This ongoing security environment, marked by Iranian efforts to control routing and U.S. naval measures, elevates war-risk insurance premiums and deters standard tanker movements, pushing trader consensus toward the 25-49 ships outcome at 59% implied probability. Broader energy market disruptions, including constrained crude flows representing a significant share of global oil trade, reinforce expectations of subdued volumes for the week of August 17, though any de-escalation could quickly alter routing incentives.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$5,702Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including two ADNOC-owned tankers struck on August 13 amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, have driven a sharp drop in transits, with only two vessels recorded on August 14 and nine the prior day—well below August's average of 12 daily. This ongoing security environment, marked by Iranian efforts to control routing and U.S. naval measures, elevates war-risk insurance premiums and deters standard tanker movements, pushing trader consensus toward the 25-49 ships outcome at 59% implied probability. Broader energy market disruptions, including constrained crude flows representing a significant share of global oil trade, reinforce expectations of subdued volumes for the week of August 17, though any de-escalation could quickly alter routing incentives.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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