Incumbent Democrat André Carson secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary for Indiana's 7th District, a seat centered in Democratic-leaning Marion County and Indianapolis that he has held since 2008 with consistent margins exceeding 60 percent. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent probability for the Democratic nominee stems from the district's partisan composition, low historical Republican performance, and absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since the primary. A late national political realignment, significant candidate-specific issues emerging before November 3, 2026, or unusually high turnout favoring the Republican challenger Patrick McAuley represent the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da Eleição da Casa IN-07
Vencedor da Eleição da Casa IN-07
$20,093 Vol.
$20,093 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
96%
Partido Republicano
5%
$20,093 Vol.
$20,093 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$7,947 Vol.
96%
Partido Republicano
$12,145 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat André Carson secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary for Indiana's 7th District, a seat centered in Democratic-leaning Marion County and Indianapolis that he has held since 2008 with consistent margins exceeding 60 percent. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent probability for the Democratic nominee stems from the district's partisan composition, low historical Republican performance, and absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since the primary. A late national political realignment, significant candidate-specific issues emerging before November 3, 2026, or unusually high turnout favoring the Republican challenger Patrick McAuley represent the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$20,093Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat André Carson secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary for Indiana's 7th District, a seat centered in Democratic-leaning Marion County and Indianapolis that he has held since 2008 with consistent margins exceeding 60 percent. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent probability for the Democratic nominee stems from the district's partisan composition, low historical Republican performance, and absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since the primary. A late national political realignment, significant candidate-specific issues emerging before November 3, 2026, or unusually high turnout favoring the Republican challenger Patrick McAuley represent the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,093Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat André Carson secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary for Indiana's 7th District, a seat centered in Democratic-leaning Marion County and Indianapolis that he has held since 2008 with consistent margins exceeding 60 percent. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent probability for the Democratic nominee stems from the district's partisan composition, low historical Republican performance, and absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since the primary. A late national political realignment, significant candidate-specific issues emerging before November 3, 2026, or unusually high turnout favoring the Republican challenger Patrick McAuley represent the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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