Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, encompassing Honolulu and surrounding Oahu communities, carries a D+13 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered Democratic general-election margins above 70 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Ed Case secured renomination on August 8 by defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent in the Democratic primary, after earlier polling showed a competitive intra-party contest. Republican nominee Adriel Lam faces structural headwinds in a district where forecasters uniformly assign Solid or Safe Democratic ratings. These factors underpin the market's 95.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical results and the district's demographic profile limit realistic paths for a Republican victory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara HI-01
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara HI-01
$35,259 Vol.
$35,259 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$35,259 Vol.
$35,259 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$14,953 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$20,305 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, encompassing Honolulu and surrounding Oahu communities, carries a D+13 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered Democratic general-election margins above 70 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Ed Case secured renomination on August 8 by defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent in the Democratic primary, after earlier polling showed a competitive intra-party contest. Republican nominee Adriel Lam faces structural headwinds in a district where forecasters uniformly assign Solid or Safe Democratic ratings. These factors underpin the market's 95.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical results and the district's demographic profile limit realistic paths for a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$35,259Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, encompassing Honolulu and surrounding Oahu communities, carries a D+13 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered Democratic general-election margins above 70 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Ed Case secured renomination on August 8 by defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent in the Democratic primary, after earlier polling showed a competitive intra-party contest. Republican nominee Adriel Lam faces structural headwinds in a district where forecasters uniformly assign Solid or Safe Democratic ratings. These factors underpin the market's 95.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical results and the district's demographic profile limit realistic paths for a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,259Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, encompassing Honolulu and surrounding Oahu communities, carries a D+13 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered Democratic general-election margins above 70 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Ed Case secured renomination on August 8 by defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent in the Democratic primary, after earlier polling showed a competitive intra-party contest. Republican nominee Adriel Lam faces structural headwinds in a district where forecasters uniformly assign Solid or Safe Democratic ratings. These factors underpin the market's 95.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical results and the district's demographic profile limit realistic paths for a Republican victory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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