Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and halting resumption of enrichment activities according to IAEA reporting and Iranian statements. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, while intelligence assessments highlight ongoing barriers to weaponization timelines and increased detection risks. Traders' 95.5% probability on "No" before 2027 reflects this physical degradation, sustained international sanctions pressure, and absence of verifiable breakout signals. Concealed reconstruction of dispersed sites or accelerated weaponization decisions by leadership could still shift outcomes within the window despite current constraints.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
5% chance
$246,408 Vol.
$246,408 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
5% chance
$246,408 Vol.
$246,408 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and halting resumption of enrichment activities according to IAEA reporting and Iranian statements. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, while intelligence assessments highlight ongoing barriers to weaponization timelines and increased detection risks. Traders' 95.5% probability on "No" before 2027 reflects this physical degradation, sustained international sanctions pressure, and absence of verifiable breakout signals. Concealed reconstruction of dispersed sites or accelerated weaponization decisions by leadership could still shift outcomes within the window despite current constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$246,408Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and halting resumption of enrichment activities according to IAEA reporting and Iranian statements. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, while intelligence assessments highlight ongoing barriers to weaponization timelines and increased detection risks. Traders' 95.5% probability on "No" before 2027 reflects this physical degradation, sustained international sanctions pressure, and absence of verifiable breakout signals. Concealed reconstruction of dispersed sites or accelerated weaponization decisions by leadership could still shift outcomes within the window despite current constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$246,408Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and halting resumption of enrichment activities according to IAEA reporting and Iranian statements. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, while intelligence assessments highlight ongoing barriers to weaponization timelines and increased detection risks. Traders' 95.5% probability on "No" before 2027 reflects this physical degradation, sustained international sanctions pressure, and absence of verifiable breakout signals. Concealed reconstruction of dispersed sites or accelerated weaponization decisions by leadership could still shift outcomes within the window despite current constraints.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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