Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, limiting access to stockpiles and disrupting infrastructure according to IAEA assessments. Subsequent reports through June 2026 show minimal program recovery, with inspectors withdrawn and enrichment activities halted amid a bilateral memorandum reaffirming no weapons development. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus against a test before 2027, reflecting the time required for reconstruction of centrifuges, facilities, and related capabilities. Potential shifts could stem from undetected parallel efforts, accelerated rebuilding visible in recent satellite imagery, or abrupt changes in diplomatic or military conditions altering access and incentives.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
5% chance
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
5% chance
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, limiting access to stockpiles and disrupting infrastructure according to IAEA assessments. Subsequent reports through June 2026 show minimal program recovery, with inspectors withdrawn and enrichment activities halted amid a bilateral memorandum reaffirming no weapons development. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus against a test before 2027, reflecting the time required for reconstruction of centrifuges, facilities, and related capabilities. Potential shifts could stem from undetected parallel efforts, accelerated rebuilding visible in recent satellite imagery, or abrupt changes in diplomatic or military conditions altering access and incentives.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$246,407Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, limiting access to stockpiles and disrupting infrastructure according to IAEA assessments. Subsequent reports through June 2026 show minimal program recovery, with inspectors withdrawn and enrichment activities halted amid a bilateral memorandum reaffirming no weapons development. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus against a test before 2027, reflecting the time required for reconstruction of centrifuges, facilities, and related capabilities. Potential shifts could stem from undetected parallel efforts, accelerated rebuilding visible in recent satellite imagery, or abrupt changes in diplomatic or military conditions altering access and incentives.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$246,407Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, limiting access to stockpiles and disrupting infrastructure according to IAEA assessments. Subsequent reports through June 2026 show minimal program recovery, with inspectors withdrawn and enrichment activities halted amid a bilateral memorandum reaffirming no weapons development. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus against a test before 2027, reflecting the time required for reconstruction of centrifuges, facilities, and related capabilities. Potential shifts could stem from undetected parallel efforts, accelerated rebuilding visible in recent satellite imagery, or abrupt changes in diplomatic or military conditions altering access and incentives.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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