Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has repeatedly targeted commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, following U.S. and Israeli strikes, to assert control over transit routes and enforce preferred lanes or fees. Multiple attacks occurred in March, June, and July, including strikes on tankers on July 6–8 and July 31 that prompted renewed U.S. naval blockades and airstrikes after a June memorandum of understanding collapsed. As of mid-August, incidents continued with reported hits on vessels on August 18, contributing to seafarer casualties and reduced traffic, while Iran-backed Houthi actions affected Red Sea routes. These developments sustain trader focus on Iran's ongoing maritime enforcement capabilities and responses from U.S. forces.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO Irão tem como alvo o transporte com sucesso até...?
O Irão tem como alvo o transporte com sucesso até...?
NOVO
26 ago 2026
26 de agosto
26%
31 de agosto
60%
$5,800 Vol.
26 de agosto
$5,798 Vol.
26%
31 de agosto
$2 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has repeatedly targeted commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, following U.S. and Israeli strikes, to assert control over transit routes and enforce preferred lanes or fees. Multiple attacks occurred in March, June, and July, including strikes on tankers on July 6–8 and July 31 that prompted renewed U.S. naval blockades and airstrikes after a June memorandum of understanding collapsed. As of mid-August, incidents continued with reported hits on vessels on August 18, contributing to seafarer casualties and reduced traffic, while Iran-backed Houthi actions affected Red Sea routes. These developments sustain trader focus on Iran's ongoing maritime enforcement capabilities and responses from U.S. forces.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$5,800Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has repeatedly targeted commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, following U.S. and Israeli strikes, to assert control over transit routes and enforce preferred lanes or fees. Multiple attacks occurred in March, June, and July, including strikes on tankers on July 6–8 and July 31 that prompted renewed U.S. naval blockades and airstrikes after a June memorandum of understanding collapsed. As of mid-August, incidents continued with reported hits on vessels on August 18, contributing to seafarer casualties and reduced traffic, while Iran-backed Houthi actions affected Red Sea routes. These developments sustain trader focus on Iran's ongoing maritime enforcement capabilities and responses from U.S. forces.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$5,800Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has repeatedly targeted commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, following U.S. and Israeli strikes, to assert control over transit routes and enforce preferred lanes or fees. Multiple attacks occurred in March, June, and July, including strikes on tankers on July 6–8 and July 31 that prompted renewed U.S. naval blockades and airstrikes after a June memorandum of understanding collapsed. As of mid-August, incidents continued with reported hits on vessels on August 18, contributing to seafarer casualties and reduced traffic, while Iran-backed Houthi actions affected Red Sea routes. These developments sustain trader focus on Iran's ongoing maritime enforcement capabilities and responses from U.S. forces.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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