Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader assessments of Iran's ability to target shipping. In early-to-mid August 2026, UAE authorities attributed drone and missile strikes on ADNOC-operated tankers and other vessels to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, prompting accusations of piracy and violations of navigation freedoms. These incidents follow renewed Iranian efforts since July to enforce preferred routes and protocols through the strait amid a U.S. naval blockade and stalled implementation of the June memorandum of understanding. Ongoing Iran-Oman consultations and U.S. diplomatic statements signal potential de-escalation pathways, while Iranian statements and reported near-misses on August 2 underscore persistent maritime risks. Scheduled talks and any further verified strikes within the resolution window remain key variables for market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$141,138 Vol.
16 ago 2026
14 de agosto
88%
15 de agosto
26%
16 de agosto
38%
17 de agosto
19%
18 de agosto
22%
19 de agosto
14%
August 20
16%
21 de agosto
16%
22 de agosto
10%
August 23
17%
24 de agosto
14%
25 de agosto
35%
26 de agosto
30%
27 de agosto
33%
August 28
10%
29 de agosto
11%
30 de agosto
12%
31 de agosto
12%
$141,138 Vol.
14 de agosto
$21,013 Vol.
88%
15 de agosto
$6,559 Vol.
26%
16 de agosto
$1,908 Vol.
38%
17 de agosto
$596 Vol.
19%
18 de agosto
$459 Vol.
22%
19 de agosto
$3,332 Vol.
14%
August 20
$695 Vol.
16%
21 de agosto
$1,141 Vol.
16%
22 de agosto
$456 Vol.
10%
August 23
$2,938 Vol.
17%
24 de agosto
$6,258 Vol.
14%
25 de agosto
$90 Vol.
35%
26 de agosto
$760 Vol.
30%
27 de agosto
$342 Vol.
33%
August 28
$725 Vol.
10%
29 de agosto
$1,384 Vol.
11%
30 de agosto
$233 Vol.
12%
31 de agosto
$601 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader assessments of Iran's ability to target shipping. In early-to-mid August 2026, UAE authorities attributed drone and missile strikes on ADNOC-operated tankers and other vessels to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, prompting accusations of piracy and violations of navigation freedoms. These incidents follow renewed Iranian efforts since July to enforce preferred routes and protocols through the strait amid a U.S. naval blockade and stalled implementation of the June memorandum of understanding. Ongoing Iran-Oman consultations and U.S. diplomatic statements signal potential de-escalation pathways, while Iranian statements and reported near-misses on August 2 underscore persistent maritime risks. Scheduled talks and any further verified strikes within the resolution window remain key variables for market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$141,138Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader assessments of Iran's ability to target shipping. In early-to-mid August 2026, UAE authorities attributed drone and missile strikes on ADNOC-operated tankers and other vessels to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, prompting accusations of piracy and violations of navigation freedoms. These incidents follow renewed Iranian efforts since July to enforce preferred routes and protocols through the strait amid a U.S. naval blockade and stalled implementation of the June memorandum of understanding. Ongoing Iran-Oman consultations and U.S. diplomatic statements signal potential de-escalation pathways, while Iranian statements and reported near-misses on August 2 underscore persistent maritime risks. Scheduled talks and any further verified strikes within the resolution window remain key variables for market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$141,138Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader assessments of Iran's ability to target shipping. In early-to-mid August 2026, UAE authorities attributed drone and missile strikes on ADNOC-operated tankers and other vessels to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, prompting accusations of piracy and violations of navigation freedoms. These incidents follow renewed Iranian efforts since July to enforce preferred routes and protocols through the strait amid a U.S. naval blockade and stalled implementation of the June memorandum of understanding. Ongoing Iran-Oman consultations and U.S. diplomatic statements signal potential de-escalation pathways, while Iranian statements and reported near-misses on August 2 underscore persistent maritime risks. Scheduled talks and any further verified strikes within the resolution window remain key variables for market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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