Negotiations over Phase II of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire remain stalled primarily by disagreements on Hamas disarmament, further Israeli withdrawals, and the establishment of a transitional Palestinian technocratic committee in Gaza. The United States formally launched Phase II in mid-January 2026, shifting focus from the initial hostage-for-prisoner exchanges and partial truce to demilitarization and reconstruction under a U.S.-backed plan. Hamas has signaled a positive response to recent Egyptian-mediated proposals in Cairo aimed at advancing implementation, yet Israeli officials describe the transition as largely symbolic while continuing limited operations against remaining militant infrastructure. Ongoing ceasefire violations and aid-delivery disputes have further slowed momentum, with mediators pressing both sides to resolve core security and governance sticking points before any sustained progress on reconstruction can occur.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$2,748,479 Vol.
30 de junho
13%
$2,748,479 Vol.
30 de junho
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Negotiations over Phase II of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire remain stalled primarily by disagreements on Hamas disarmament, further Israeli withdrawals, and the establishment of a transitional Palestinian technocratic committee in Gaza. The United States formally launched Phase II in mid-January 2026, shifting focus from the initial hostage-for-prisoner exchanges and partial truce to demilitarization and reconstruction under a U.S.-backed plan. Hamas has signaled a positive response to recent Egyptian-mediated proposals in Cairo aimed at advancing implementation, yet Israeli officials describe the transition as largely symbolic while continuing limited operations against remaining militant infrastructure. Ongoing ceasefire violations and aid-delivery disputes have further slowed momentum, with mediators pressing both sides to resolve core security and governance sticking points before any sustained progress on reconstruction can occur.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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