Recent upward revisions to Q2 2026 growth forecasts, with the Japan Center for Economic Research lifting its annualized QoQ estimate to 1.67% on August 12, have anchored trader positioning around the 1.6%–2.4% bin at 36% implied probability. Q1's 1.8% annualized expansion, driven by resilient private consumption and a 0.5% QoQ print, established a constructive base rate, while moderating export momentum and lingering energy-price pressures from prior supply disruptions temper expectations for acceleration into the 2.4%–3.2% range. The first preliminary GDP release scheduled for August 17 will resolve the market, with consensus forecasts clustering near 1.5–2.0% annualized and limited scope for outsized upside absent stronger-than-expected domestic demand data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1.6%–2.4% 36.4%
2.4%–3.2% 17.7%
0.8%–1.6% 14%
3.2%–4.0% 6.2%
$80,750 Vol.
$80,750 Vol.
17 ago 2026
<-2.4%
<1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
<1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
1%
-0.8%–0.0%
1%
0.0%–0.8%
5%
0.8%–1.6%
14%
1.6%–2.4%
36%
2.4%–3.2%
18%
3.2%–4.0%
6%
4.0%+
2%
1.6%–2.4% 36.4%
2.4%–3.2% 17.7%
0.8%–1.6% 14%
3.2%–4.0% 6.2%
$80,750 Vol.
$80,750 Vol.
17 ago 2026
<-2.4%
$2,189 Vol.
<1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,033 Vol.
<1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$3,295 Vol.
1%
-0.8%–0.0%
$3,219 Vol.
1%
0.0%–0.8%
$40,646 Vol.
5%
0.8%–1.6%
$15,525 Vol.
14%
1.6%–2.4%
$3,770 Vol.
36%
2.4%–3.2%
$4,726 Vol.
18%
3.2%–4.0%
$2,043 Vol.
6%
4.0%+
$2,304 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent upward revisions to Q2 2026 growth forecasts, with the Japan Center for Economic Research lifting its annualized QoQ estimate to 1.67% on August 12, have anchored trader positioning around the 1.6%–2.4% bin at 36% implied probability. Q1's 1.8% annualized expansion, driven by resilient private consumption and a 0.5% QoQ print, established a constructive base rate, while moderating export momentum and lingering energy-price pressures from prior supply disruptions temper expectations for acceleration into the 2.4%–3.2% range. The first preliminary GDP release scheduled for August 17 will resolve the market, with consensus forecasts clustering near 1.5–2.0% annualized and limited scope for outsized upside absent stronger-than-expected domestic demand data.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercado Aberto: May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volume
$80,750Data de Término
17 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent upward revisions to Q2 2026 growth forecasts, with the Japan Center for Economic Research lifting its annualized QoQ estimate to 1.67% on August 12, have anchored trader positioning around the 1.6%–2.4% bin at 36% implied probability. Q1's 1.8% annualized expansion, driven by resilient private consumption and a 0.5% QoQ print, established a constructive base rate, while moderating export momentum and lingering energy-price pressures from prior supply disruptions temper expectations for acceleration into the 2.4%–3.2% range. The first preliminary GDP release scheduled for August 17 will resolve the market, with consensus forecasts clustering near 1.5–2.0% annualized and limited scope for outsized upside absent stronger-than-expected domestic demand data.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$80,750Data de Término
17 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent upward revisions to Q2 2026 growth forecasts, with the Japan Center for Economic Research lifting its annualized QoQ estimate to 1.67% on August 12, have anchored trader positioning around the 1.6%–2.4% bin at 36% implied probability. Q1's 1.8% annualized expansion, driven by resilient private consumption and a 0.5% QoQ print, established a constructive base rate, while moderating export momentum and lingering energy-price pressures from prior supply disruptions temper expectations for acceleration into the 2.4%–3.2% range. The first preliminary GDP release scheduled for August 17 will resolve the market, with consensus forecasts clustering near 1.5–2.0% annualized and limited scope for outsized upside absent stronger-than-expected domestic demand data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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