The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell over Federal Reserve headquarters renovation cost overruns—now estimated at $2.46 billion—remains the dominant factor anchoring low implied probabilities of federal charges. A federal judge quashed subpoenas in March, citing zero evidence of criminal conduct beyond political friction with the administration over monetary policy. The referral to the Fed Inspector General, who previously found no fraud, further reduces prospects for indictment. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on Polymarket, prices these outcomes near zero through year-end, reflecting the probe’s collapse and absence of new investigative activity. Powell’s completed term as Chair and ongoing Board tenure introduce no fresh legal catalysts, though any future congressional or inspector general findings could theoretically reopen scrutiny.