The Justice Department’s April 2026 decision to drop its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over congressional testimony regarding headquarters renovations eliminated the only active pathway to federal charges. Prosecutors had issued grand jury subpoenas in January but produced no evidence of wrongdoing, prompting a federal judge to quash the requests as pretextual. With the probe transferred to the Fed’s inspector general and Powell’s term nearing its end, no new indictments have emerged in the subsequent weeks. Traders assign the 98.2 percent “No” probability because any charges by June 30 would require either a sudden reversal by the DOJ or an entirely separate inquiry, both viewed as remote given the prior findings of insufficient evidence and institutional constraints on rapid federal action against an independent agency head.