The official @khamenei_ir account, now issuing statements under the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following Ali Khamenei's March 2026 death, has maintained a low-volume pattern of zero to four posts per week during non-crisis intervals since the transition. Traders have priced the sub-five outcome at 84.5 percent because the resolution window from May 12 to 19 lacks scheduled diplomatic summits, major military escalations, or domestic political triggers that historically prompt bursts of official messaging on nuclear policy, the Strait of Hormuz, or regional security. Sporadic statements on these topics have appeared in recent weeks, yet they have not translated into sustained daily output, reinforcing the market's alignment with historical base rates for the account's activity absent acute confrontation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoKhamenei # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?
Khamenei # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?
<5 83%
5-9 11%
10-14 1.9%
15-19 1.5%
$10,454 Vol.
$10,454 Vol.
19 mai 2026
<5
83%
5-9
11%
10-14
2%
15-19
2%
20-24
1%
25-29
<1%
30-34
<1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 83%
5-9 11%
10-14 1.9%
15-19 1.5%
$10,454 Vol.
$10,454 Vol.
19 mai 2026
<5
$1,912 Vol.
83%
5-9
$1,819 Vol.
11%
10-14
$647 Vol.
2%
15-19
$1,123 Vol.
2%
20-24
$806 Vol.
1%
25-29
$401 Vol.
<1%
30-34
$458 Vol.
<1%
35-39
$443 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$596 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$484 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$489 Vol.
<1%
55-59
$609 Vol.
<1%
60+
$666 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The official @khamenei_ir account, now issuing statements under the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following Ali Khamenei's March 2026 death, has maintained a low-volume pattern of zero to four posts per week during non-crisis intervals since the transition. Traders have priced the sub-five outcome at 84.5 percent because the resolution window from May 12 to 19 lacks scheduled diplomatic summits, major military escalations, or domestic political triggers that historically prompt bursts of official messaging on nuclear policy, the Strait of Hormuz, or regional security. Sporadic statements on these topics have appeared in recent weeks, yet they have not translated into sustained daily output, reinforcing the market's alignment with historical base rates for the account's activity absent acute confrontation.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ET
Volume
$10,454Data de Término
19 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The official @khamenei_ir account, now issuing statements under the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following Ali Khamenei's March 2026 death, has maintained a low-volume pattern of zero to four posts per week during non-crisis intervals since the transition. Traders have priced the sub-five outcome at 84.5 percent because the resolution window from May 12 to 19 lacks scheduled diplomatic summits, major military escalations, or domestic political triggers that historically prompt bursts of official messaging on nuclear policy, the Strait of Hormuz, or regional security. Sporadic statements on these topics have appeared in recent weeks, yet they have not translated into sustained daily output, reinforcing the market's alignment with historical base rates for the account's activity absent acute confrontation.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$10,454Data de Término
19 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...The official @khamenei_ir account, now issuing statements under the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following Ali Khamenei's March 2026 death, has maintained a low-volume pattern of zero to four posts per week during non-crisis intervals since the transition. Traders have priced the sub-five outcome at 84.5 percent because the resolution window from May 12 to 19 lacks scheduled diplomatic summits, major military escalations, or domestic political triggers that historically prompt bursts of official messaging on nuclear policy, the Strait of Hormuz, or regional security. Sporadic statements on these topics have appeared in recent weeks, yet they have not translated into sustained daily output, reinforcing the market's alignment with historical base rates for the account's activity absent acute confrontation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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