**Current short-range forecasts from multiple models converge on overnight minimum temperatures of 25–27°C for Hong Kong on September 1, driven by persistent high humidity, extensive cloud cover, and light northeasterly winds that limit radiational cooling.** These conditions, typical of early-autumn transition in the region, produce dew points near 24–25°C and reduce the diurnal temperature range. Recent model consensus shows scattered showers or thunderstorms, which can further suppress minimums by maintaining a moist boundary layer. Historical September climatology places average daily lows around 24–26°C, providing a baseline that aligns with the tight clustering of market probabilities around 25–26°C. Uncertainty remains from possible variations in cloud thickness or timing of any precipitation, which could shift the realized minimum by 1–2°C.