Recent forecast model runs for Warsaw show considerable uncertainty in the overnight minimum temperature on September 11, with ensemble spreads reflecting variable radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds from the west. Clearer conditions overnight would enhance longwave radiation loss, favoring minima near 7–8 °C, while increased low-level moisture or slightly stronger flow could limit cooling to 10 °C or above. These closely matched market-implied probabilities around 26–31 % for the leading outcomes capture trader weighting of numerical weather prediction consensus against historical September climatology, where clear, calm nights often produce the sharpest drops. Updated short-range model guidance expected later today will likely refine the range ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Varsóvia no dia 11 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Varsóvia no dia 11 de setembro?
5°C ou menos 52%
15°C ou mais 52%
10°C 38%
7°C 32%
NOVO
NOVO
11 set 2026
5°C ou menos
52%
6°C
20%
7°C
32%
8°C
27%
9°C
11%
10°C
38%
11°C
14%
12°C
14%
13°C
5%
14°C
5%
15°C ou mais
52%
5°C ou menos 52%
15°C ou mais 52%
10°C 38%
7°C 32%
NOVO
NOVO
11 set 2026
5°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
52%
6°C
$9 Vol.
20%
7°C
$0 Vol.
32%
8°C
$0 Vol.
27%
9°C
$50 Vol.
11%
10°C
$0 Vol.
38%
11°C
$60 Vol.
14%
12°C
$0 Vol.
14%
13°C
$0 Vol.
5%
14°C
$0 Vol.
5%
15°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for Warsaw show considerable uncertainty in the overnight minimum temperature on September 11, with ensemble spreads reflecting variable radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds from the west. Clearer conditions overnight would enhance longwave radiation loss, favoring minima near 7–8 °C, while increased low-level moisture or slightly stronger flow could limit cooling to 10 °C or above. These closely matched market-implied probabilities around 26–31 % for the leading outcomes capture trader weighting of numerical weather prediction consensus against historical September climatology, where clear, calm nights often produce the sharpest drops. Updated short-range model guidance expected later today will likely refine the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$119Data de Término
11 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for Warsaw show considerable uncertainty in the overnight minimum temperature on September 11, with ensemble spreads reflecting variable radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds from the west. Clearer conditions overnight would enhance longwave radiation loss, favoring minima near 7–8 °C, while increased low-level moisture or slightly stronger flow could limit cooling to 10 °C or above. These closely matched market-implied probabilities around 26–31 % for the leading outcomes capture trader weighting of numerical weather prediction consensus against historical September climatology, where clear, calm nights often produce the sharpest drops. Updated short-range model guidance expected later today will likely refine the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$119Data de Término
11 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs for Warsaw show considerable uncertainty in the overnight minimum temperature on September 11, with ensemble spreads reflecting variable radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds from the west. Clearer conditions overnight would enhance longwave radiation loss, favoring minima near 7–8 °C, while increased low-level moisture or slightly stronger flow could limit cooling to 10 °C or above. These closely matched market-implied probabilities around 26–31 % for the leading outcomes capture trader weighting of numerical weather prediction consensus against historical September climatology, where clear, calm nights often produce the sharpest drops. Updated short-range model guidance expected later today will likely refine the range ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions