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Formas de tempestade nomeadas antes da temporada de furacões?

icon for Formas de tempestade nomeadas antes da temporada de furacões?

Formas de tempestade nomeadas antes da temporada de furacões?

mai 31

mai 31

Sim

20% chance
Polymarket

$341,219 Vol.

Sim

20% chance
Polymarket

$341,219 Vol.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.As of mid-May 2026, the National Hurricane Center's daily tropical weather outlooks show no organized disturbances or favorable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic basin over the next seven days. This aligns with climatological patterns, where the first named storm typically forms around June 20, well after the official June 1 season start. Emerging El Niño conditions are expected to further suppress early-season activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. With zero systems recorded so far and NOAA's seasonal outlook scheduled for release on May 21, traders see limited pathways for a pre-season named storm, reinforcing the strong market consensus against formation before June 1.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$341,219
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.As of mid-May 2026, the National Hurricane Center's daily tropical weather outlooks show no organized disturbances or favorable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic basin over the next seven days. This aligns with climatological patterns, where the first named storm typically forms around June 20, well after the official June 1 season start. Emerging El Niño conditions are expected to further suppress early-season activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. With zero systems recorded so far and NOAA's seasonal outlook scheduled for release on May 21, traders see limited pathways for a pre-season named storm, reinforcing the strong market consensus against formation before June 1.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$341,219
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Formas de tempestade nomeadas antes da temporada de furacões?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tempestade nomeada se forma antes da temporada de furacões?" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 20¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 20% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Formas de tempestade nomeadas antes da temporada de furacões?" has generated $341.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Formas de tempestade nomeadas antes da temporada de furacões?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Formas de tempestade nomeadas antes da temporada de furacões?" is "Tempestade nomeada se forma antes da temporada de furacões?" at 20%, meaning the market assigns a 20% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Formas de tempestade nomeadas antes da temporada de furacões?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.