Recent parliamentary elections produced a hung legislature, with Robert Golob’s Freedom Movement securing 29 seats and Janez Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Party taking 28. Golob’s subsequent inability to assemble a majority coalition has shifted momentum toward Janša, whose party is actively courting smaller centre-right groups to reach the 46-seat threshold required for government formation. Traders assign Janša a commanding lead because he has previously served three terms as prime minister and faces fewer immediate obstacles in coalition arithmetic. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential last-minute partner withdrawals, renewed talks with opposition parties, or a presidential decision to call fresh elections if no viable majority emerges.