The Democratic Party holds a commanding position in New York’s 12th congressional district due to its consistent partisan lean in Manhattan and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. With longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler retiring, the June 23 Democratic primary features a crowded field including state assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, along with George Conway and Jack Schlossberg, yet any nominee is expected to prevail decisively in the November general election. Recent polling and turnout projections highlight an older electorate favoring establishment candidates, while Republican primary contenders remain low-profile with minimal resources. Historical margins exceeding 70 points underscore the structural barriers, though late developments such as candidate scandals or unusually high turnout shifts could theoretically narrow the gap before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara de NY-12
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara de NY-12
$17,171 Vol.
$17,171 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
94%
Partido Republicano
6%
$17,171 Vol.
$17,171 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$14,681 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$2,490 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding position in New York’s 12th congressional district due to its consistent partisan lean in Manhattan and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. With longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler retiring, the June 23 Democratic primary features a crowded field including state assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, along with George Conway and Jack Schlossberg, yet any nominee is expected to prevail decisively in the November general election. Recent polling and turnout projections highlight an older electorate favoring establishment candidates, while Republican primary contenders remain low-profile with minimal resources. Historical margins exceeding 70 points underscore the structural barriers, though late developments such as candidate scandals or unusually high turnout shifts could theoretically narrow the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$17,171Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding position in New York’s 12th congressional district due to its consistent partisan lean in Manhattan and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. With longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler retiring, the June 23 Democratic primary features a crowded field including state assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, along with George Conway and Jack Schlossberg, yet any nominee is expected to prevail decisively in the November general election. Recent polling and turnout projections highlight an older electorate favoring establishment candidates, while Republican primary contenders remain low-profile with minimal resources. Historical margins exceeding 70 points underscore the structural barriers, though late developments such as candidate scandals or unusually high turnout shifts could theoretically narrow the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,171Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a commanding position in New York’s 12th congressional district due to its consistent partisan lean in Manhattan and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. With longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler retiring, the June 23 Democratic primary features a crowded field including state assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, along with George Conway and Jack Schlossberg, yet any nominee is expected to prevail decisively in the November general election. Recent polling and turnout projections highlight an older electorate favoring establishment candidates, while Republican primary contenders remain low-profile with minimal resources. Historical margins exceeding 70 points underscore the structural barriers, though late developments such as candidate scandals or unusually high turnout shifts could theoretically narrow the gap before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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