Traders assign the highest implied probability (51.5%) to 4+ ChatGPT outage days in June 2026 because OpenAI’s large language model infrastructure has already recorded multiple service disruptions this month, including elevated error rates and availability issues for free and paid tiers on June 8 and June 11. Current status.openai.com data shows ChatGPT at 99.83% uptime for the March–June window, yet partial outages remain common amid heavy user demand and ongoing model scaling. With the month only half complete, traders anticipate additional incidents driven by infrastructure strain or feature rollouts. The low odds on fewer than 2 days reflect this established pattern of recurring downtime rather than any expectation of perfect reliability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026?
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026?
4+ 52%
3 27%
2 21%
<2 <1%
$10,307 Vol.
$10,307 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<2
<1%
2
21%
3
27%
4+
52%
4+ 52%
3 27%
2 21%
<2 <1%
$10,307 Vol.
$10,307 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<2
$5,707 Vol.
<1%
2
$650 Vol.
21%
3
$432 Vol.
27%
4+
$3,518 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign the highest implied probability (51.5%) to 4+ ChatGPT outage days in June 2026 because OpenAI’s large language model infrastructure has already recorded multiple service disruptions this month, including elevated error rates and availability issues for free and paid tiers on June 8 and June 11. Current status.openai.com data shows ChatGPT at 99.83% uptime for the March–June window, yet partial outages remain common amid heavy user demand and ongoing model scaling. With the month only half complete, traders anticipate additional incidents driven by infrastructure strain or feature rollouts. The low odds on fewer than 2 days reflect this established pattern of recurring downtime rather than any expectation of perfect reliability.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
Volume
$10,307Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign the highest implied probability (51.5%) to 4+ ChatGPT outage days in June 2026 because OpenAI’s large language model infrastructure has already recorded multiple service disruptions this month, including elevated error rates and availability issues for free and paid tiers on June 8 and June 11. Current status.openai.com data shows ChatGPT at 99.83% uptime for the March–June window, yet partial outages remain common amid heavy user demand and ongoing model scaling. With the month only half complete, traders anticipate additional incidents driven by infrastructure strain or feature rollouts. The low odds on fewer than 2 days reflect this established pattern of recurring downtime rather than any expectation of perfect reliability.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,307Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (51.5%) to 4+ ChatGPT outage days in June 2026 because OpenAI’s large language model infrastructure has already recorded multiple service disruptions this month, including elevated error rates and availability issues for free and paid tiers on June 8 and June 11. Current status.openai.com data shows ChatGPT at 99.83% uptime for the March–June window, yet partial outages remain common amid heavy user demand and ongoing model scaling. With the month only half complete, traders anticipate additional incidents driven by infrastructure strain or feature rollouts. The low odds on fewer than 2 days reflect this established pattern of recurring downtime rather than any expectation of perfect reliability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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