Russia's Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko's federal party list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10, with the appeal rejected on August 17, barring the liberal opposition party from nationwide proportional representation voting. This action follows sustained administrative pressure on the anti-war grouping, which has never exceeded the 5% electoral threshold since 1999 and polled around 1% in prior cycles. The ruling eliminates any realistic path for Yabloko to clear the Duma threshold via the party list, driving near-certain trader consensus toward "No." Limited single-mandate candidacies remain possible in some districts, though they do not affect threshold resolution; a further supervisory review or procedural reversal before the vote could theoretically alter outcomes but faces significant institutional barriers.