South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP beat expectations with 3.7% YoY and 0.6% QoQ growth, propelled by semiconductor exports surging nearly 170% year-over-year amid the global AI boom, which now accounts for over 40% of total exports. Official 2026 forecasts cluster around 2.6–3.0%, supported by net exports and resilient private consumption, yet tempered by Middle East energy price volatility, softer domestic demand components, and Bank of Korea commentary noting potential Q3 moderation. Trader-implied odds concentrated in the 2.5–3.4% bands capture uncertainty over whether chip-driven momentum persists through September or faces offsets from higher inflation (near 3.1% in May) and external risks, with the closely matched probabilities underscoring sensitivity to upcoming export and production data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado3,0–3,4% 36%
2,5–2,9% 32%
3,5–3,9% 21.4%
2,0–2,4% 11%
$37,974 Vol.
$37,974 Vol.
27 out 2026
<2,0%
2%
2,0–2,4%
11%
2,5–2,9%
32%
3,0–3,4%
36%
3,5–3,9%
21%
4,0–4,4%
3%
4,5–4,9%
1%
5,0%+
1%
3,0–3,4% 36%
2,5–2,9% 32%
3,5–3,9% 21.4%
2,0–2,4% 11%
$37,974 Vol.
$37,974 Vol.
27 out 2026
<2,0%
$533 Vol.
2%
2,0–2,4%
$11,847 Vol.
11%
2,5–2,9%
$3,551 Vol.
32%
3,0–3,4%
$20,153 Vol.
36%
3,5–3,9%
$752 Vol.
21%
4,0–4,4%
$507 Vol.
3%
4,5–4,9%
$317 Vol.
1%
5,0%+
$314 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP beat expectations with 3.7% YoY and 0.6% QoQ growth, propelled by semiconductor exports surging nearly 170% year-over-year amid the global AI boom, which now accounts for over 40% of total exports. Official 2026 forecasts cluster around 2.6–3.0%, supported by net exports and resilient private consumption, yet tempered by Middle East energy price volatility, softer domestic demand components, and Bank of Korea commentary noting potential Q3 moderation. Trader-implied odds concentrated in the 2.5–3.4% bands capture uncertainty over whether chip-driven momentum persists through September or faces offsets from higher inflation (near 3.1% in May) and external risks, with the closely matched probabilities underscoring sensitivity to upcoming export and production data.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$37,974Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP beat expectations with 3.7% YoY and 0.6% QoQ growth, propelled by semiconductor exports surging nearly 170% year-over-year amid the global AI boom, which now accounts for over 40% of total exports. Official 2026 forecasts cluster around 2.6–3.0%, supported by net exports and resilient private consumption, yet tempered by Middle East energy price volatility, softer domestic demand components, and Bank of Korea commentary noting potential Q3 moderation. Trader-implied odds concentrated in the 2.5–3.4% bands capture uncertainty over whether chip-driven momentum persists through September or faces offsets from higher inflation (near 3.1% in May) and external risks, with the closely matched probabilities underscoring sensitivity to upcoming export and production data.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volume
$37,974Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP beat expectations with 3.7% YoY and 0.6% QoQ growth, propelled by semiconductor exports surging nearly 170% year-over-year amid the global AI boom, which now accounts for over 40% of total exports. Official 2026 forecasts cluster around 2.6–3.0%, supported by net exports and resilient private consumption, yet tempered by Middle East energy price volatility, softer domestic demand components, and Bank of Korea commentary noting potential Q3 moderation. Trader-implied odds concentrated in the 2.5–3.4% bands capture uncertainty over whether chip-driven momentum persists through September or faces offsets from higher inflation (near 3.1% in May) and external risks, with the closely matched probabilities underscoring sensitivity to upcoming export and production data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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