Republican majorities in Congress have limited prospects for removing President Trump before 2027, as any impeachment resolution would require a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction, a threshold rarely met without broad bipartisan support. Recent Democratic filings of articles of impeachment and related measures on presidential fitness have advanced no further than committee stages, facing swift dismissal in the GOP-led House. No public statements or verified reports indicate plans for resignation or invocation of the 25th Amendment, while structural barriers such as term limits and constitutional requirements continue to favor completion of the current term through at least the 2026 midterms. Traders price these institutional and procedural realities at a 90.5% probability that Trump remains in office.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$8,518,570 Vol.
$8,518,570 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$8,518,570 Vol.
$8,518,570 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in Congress have limited prospects for removing President Trump before 2027, as any impeachment resolution would require a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction, a threshold rarely met without broad bipartisan support. Recent Democratic filings of articles of impeachment and related measures on presidential fitness have advanced no further than committee stages, facing swift dismissal in the GOP-led House. No public statements or verified reports indicate plans for resignation or invocation of the 25th Amendment, while structural barriers such as term limits and constitutional requirements continue to favor completion of the current term through at least the 2026 midterms. Traders price these institutional and procedural realities at a 90.5% probability that Trump remains in office.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$8,518,570Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in Congress have limited prospects for removing President Trump before 2027, as any impeachment resolution would require a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction, a threshold rarely met without broad bipartisan support. Recent Democratic filings of articles of impeachment and related measures on presidential fitness have advanced no further than committee stages, facing swift dismissal in the GOP-led House. No public statements or verified reports indicate plans for resignation or invocation of the 25th Amendment, while structural barriers such as term limits and constitutional requirements continue to favor completion of the current term through at least the 2026 midterms. Traders price these institutional and procedural realities at a 90.5% probability that Trump remains in office.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,518,570Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican majorities in Congress have limited prospects for removing President Trump before 2027, as any impeachment resolution would require a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction, a threshold rarely met without broad bipartisan support. Recent Democratic filings of articles of impeachment and related measures on presidential fitness have advanced no further than committee stages, facing swift dismissal in the GOP-led House. No public statements or verified reports indicate plans for resignation or invocation of the 25th Amendment, while structural barriers such as term limits and constitutional requirements continue to favor completion of the current term through at least the 2026 midterms. Traders price these institutional and procedural realities at a 90.5% probability that Trump remains in office.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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