Ongoing diplomatic efforts between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled primarily over unresolved territorial demands and security arrangements, sustaining trader expectations that a comprehensive peace agreement will not be reached before 2027. Recent Kremlin statements in early May 2026 described any settlement as a long way off, with negotiations paused amid complex disagreements, including Russian insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other regions before substantive talks resume. Short-term ceasefires observed around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day produced only limited prisoner exchanges without advancing core political issues. These developments, alongside Russia's reluctance to prioritize negotiations and Ukraine's focus on battlefield positions, reinforce the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$575,524 Vol.
$575,524 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$575,524 Vol.
$575,524 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing diplomatic efforts between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled primarily over unresolved territorial demands and security arrangements, sustaining trader expectations that a comprehensive peace agreement will not be reached before 2027. Recent Kremlin statements in early May 2026 described any settlement as a long way off, with negotiations paused amid complex disagreements, including Russian insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other regions before substantive talks resume. Short-term ceasefires observed around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day produced only limited prisoner exchanges without advancing core political issues. These developments, alongside Russia's reluctance to prioritize negotiations and Ukraine's focus on battlefield positions, reinforce the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$575,524Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing diplomatic efforts between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled primarily over unresolved territorial demands and security arrangements, sustaining trader expectations that a comprehensive peace agreement will not be reached before 2027. Recent Kremlin statements in early May 2026 described any settlement as a long way off, with negotiations paused amid complex disagreements, including Russian insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other regions before substantive talks resume. Short-term ceasefires observed around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day produced only limited prisoner exchanges without advancing core political issues. These developments, alongside Russia's reluctance to prioritize negotiations and Ukraine's focus on battlefield positions, reinforce the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$575,524Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled primarily over unresolved territorial demands and security arrangements, sustaining trader expectations that a comprehensive peace agreement will not be reached before 2027. Recent Kremlin statements in early May 2026 described any settlement as a long way off, with negotiations paused amid complex disagreements, including Russian insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other regions before substantive talks resume. Short-term ceasefires observed around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day produced only limited prisoner exchanges without advancing core political issues. These developments, alongside Russia's reluctance to prioritize negotiations and Ukraine's focus on battlefield positions, reinforce the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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