Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% market-implied odds against a U.S. government ban on an open-source AI model this year stems primarily from recent policy signals favoring open-weight models. The June 2026 executive order and subsequent framework established voluntary pre-release reviews only for closed frontier models from labs like Anthropic and OpenAI, explicitly exempting open-weight releases. A House panel advanced the Open-Source AI Leadership Act in mid-September to promote domestic open models for competitiveness against Chinese alternatives, while industry statements and administration actions have repeatedly highlighted open weights as tools for innovation and sovereignty rather than targets for prohibition. Realistic challenges remain if a U.S. model demonstrates unprecedented cyber or biological risks prompting emergency export-style controls, or if bipartisan legislation shifts toward mandatory safety gates applicable to all weights.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO governo dos EUA proíbe um modelo de IA de código aberto em 2026?
O governo dos EUA proíbe um modelo de IA de código aberto em 2026?
Sim
8% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
8% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% market-implied odds against a U.S. government ban on an open-source AI model this year stems primarily from recent policy signals favoring open-weight models. The June 2026 executive order and subsequent framework established voluntary pre-release reviews only for closed frontier models from labs like Anthropic and OpenAI, explicitly exempting open-weight releases. A House panel advanced the Open-Source AI Leadership Act in mid-September to promote domestic open models for competitiveness against Chinese alternatives, while industry statements and administration actions have repeatedly highlighted open weights as tools for innovation and sovereignty rather than targets for prohibition. Realistic challenges remain if a U.S. model demonstrates unprecedented cyber or biological risks prompting emergency export-style controls, or if bipartisan legislation shifts toward mandatory safety gates applicable to all weights.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Volume
$5,094Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% market-implied odds against a U.S. government ban on an open-source AI model this year stems primarily from recent policy signals favoring open-weight models. The June 2026 executive order and subsequent framework established voluntary pre-release reviews only for closed frontier models from labs like Anthropic and OpenAI, explicitly exempting open-weight releases. A House panel advanced the Open-Source AI Leadership Act in mid-September to promote domestic open models for competitiveness against Chinese alternatives, while industry statements and administration actions have repeatedly highlighted open weights as tools for innovation and sovereignty rather than targets for prohibition. Realistic challenges remain if a U.S. model demonstrates unprecedented cyber or biological risks prompting emergency export-style controls, or if bipartisan legislation shifts toward mandatory safety gates applicable to all weights.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,094Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% market-implied odds against a U.S. government ban on an open-source AI model this year stems primarily from recent policy signals favoring open-weight models. The June 2026 executive order and subsequent framework established voluntary pre-release reviews only for closed frontier models from labs like Anthropic and OpenAI, explicitly exempting open-weight releases. A House panel advanced the Open-Source AI Leadership Act in mid-September to promote domestic open models for competitiveness against Chinese alternatives, while industry statements and administration actions have repeatedly highlighted open weights as tools for innovation and sovereignty rather than targets for prohibition. Realistic challenges remain if a U.S. model demonstrates unprecedented cyber or biological risks prompting emergency export-style controls, or if bipartisan legislation shifts toward mandatory safety gates applicable to all weights.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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