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icon for Alistamento militar dos EUA autorizado em 2026?
Política·Trump

Alistamento militar dos EUA autorizado em 2026?

icon for Alistamento militar dos EUA autorizado em 2026?
Política·Trump

Alistamento militar dos EUA autorizado em 2026?

Sim

9% chance
Polymarket

$251,086 Vol.

Sim

9% chance
Polymarket

$251,086 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 91.5% implied probability for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill, executive order, or national emergency declaration reinstating conscription since the all-volunteer force took effect in 1973. Recent April 2026 headlines spotlighted a provision in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed by President Trump in December 2025—mandating automatic Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December 2026, streamlining the existing draft-eligible pool without activating inductions. Amid US involvement in Middle East conflicts including against Iran, all armed services met fiscal year 2025 recruitment goals, diminishing urgency for a draft amid strong volunteer enlistments and no pending legislation. Late-breaking emergencies or congressional action could shift odds, but current trader consensus sees substantial barriers to authorization by year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$251,086
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 91.5% implied probability for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill, executive order, or national emergency declaration reinstating conscription since the all-volunteer force took effect in 1973. Recent April 2026 headlines spotlighted a provision in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed by President Trump in December 2025—mandating automatic Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December 2026, streamlining the existing draft-eligible pool without activating inductions. Amid US involvement in Middle East conflicts including against Iran, all armed services met fiscal year 2025 recruitment goals, diminishing urgency for a draft amid strong volunteer enlistments and no pending legislation. Late-breaking emergencies or congressional action could shift odds, but current trader consensus sees substantial barriers to authorization by year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$251,086
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Alistamento militar dos EUA autorizado em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "O alistamento militar obrigatório nos EUA foi autorizado em 2026?" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Alistamento militar dos EUA autorizado em 2026?" has generated $251.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Alistamento militar dos EUA autorizado em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Alistamento militar dos EUA autorizado em 2026?" is "O alistamento militar obrigatório nos EUA foi autorizado em 2026?" at just 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Alistamento militar dos EUA autorizado em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.