Republican incumbent Michael Baumgartner advanced from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary in Washington’s 5th District with 48 percent of the vote, well ahead of Democratic and independent challengers. The district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and has been rated solid or safe Republican by multiple forecasters, reflecting consistent voter preferences in recent cycles. Early general election polling shows Baumgartner leading likely Democratic nominee Carmela Conroy by single digits in some surveys, though independents remain a variable. These factors underpin the Republican Party’s 68.5 percent implied probability in trader consensus for the November 3 general election outcome, with the Democratic share at 32.8 percent. No major developments since the primary have altered the structural advantage.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da Casa WA-05
Vencedor da eleição da Casa WA-05
$32,060 Vol.
$32,060 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
68%
Partido Democrata
33%
$32,060 Vol.
$32,060 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$12,040 Vol.
68%
Partido Democrata
$20,020 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Michael Baumgartner advanced from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary in Washington’s 5th District with 48 percent of the vote, well ahead of Democratic and independent challengers. The district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and has been rated solid or safe Republican by multiple forecasters, reflecting consistent voter preferences in recent cycles. Early general election polling shows Baumgartner leading likely Democratic nominee Carmela Conroy by single digits in some surveys, though independents remain a variable. These factors underpin the Republican Party’s 68.5 percent implied probability in trader consensus for the November 3 general election outcome, with the Democratic share at 32.8 percent. No major developments since the primary have altered the structural advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$32,060Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Michael Baumgartner advanced from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary in Washington’s 5th District with 48 percent of the vote, well ahead of Democratic and independent challengers. The district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and has been rated solid or safe Republican by multiple forecasters, reflecting consistent voter preferences in recent cycles. Early general election polling shows Baumgartner leading likely Democratic nominee Carmela Conroy by single digits in some surveys, though independents remain a variable. These factors underpin the Republican Party’s 68.5 percent implied probability in trader consensus for the November 3 general election outcome, with the Democratic share at 32.8 percent. No major developments since the primary have altered the structural advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,060Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Michael Baumgartner advanced from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary in Washington’s 5th District with 48 percent of the vote, well ahead of Democratic and independent challengers. The district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and has been rated solid or safe Republican by multiple forecasters, reflecting consistent voter preferences in recent cycles. Early general election polling shows Baumgartner leading likely Democratic nominee Carmela Conroy by single digits in some surveys, though independents remain a variable. These factors underpin the Republican Party’s 68.5 percent implied probability in trader consensus for the November 3 general election outcome, with the Democratic share at 32.8 percent. No major developments since the primary have altered the structural advantage.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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