**Republican Amanda McKinney holds a commanding position in the WA-04 general election matchup against Democrat John Duresky following the August 4, 2026, top-two primary.** The open seat, created by longtime Republican incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement, sits in one of Washington’s most conservative districts, encompassing rural central and eastern counties including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. McKinney, a Yakima County commissioner with Trump’s endorsement and House Speaker Mike Johnson’s support, consolidated Republican support in the crowded primary field that included Jerrod Sessler and state Sen. Matt Boehnke. Duresky, a retired Air Force major and the sole Democrat, advanced in second place but trails significantly in a district where Donald Trump carried a 14.5-point margin in 2024. Forecasting models rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, projecting a roughly 20-point GOP margin. The district’s partisan voting index, consistent Republican performance in statewide and federal contests, and unified party backing for the nominee drive trader consensus toward the Republican outcome. National midterm dynamics and turnout patterns could influence the final margin, but structural factors in this agricultural and energy-focused district limit realistic pathways for a Democratic upset absent major late developments such as candidate-specific issues or unusual shifts in voter participation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04
$50,729 Vol.
$50,729 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
91%
Partido Democrata
8%
$50,729 Vol.
$50,729 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$28,019 Vol.
91%
Partido Democrata
$22,711 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican Amanda McKinney holds a commanding position in the WA-04 general election matchup against Democrat John Duresky following the August 4, 2026, top-two primary.**
The open seat, created by longtime Republican incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement, sits in one of Washington’s most conservative districts, encompassing rural central and eastern counties including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. McKinney, a Yakima County commissioner with Trump’s endorsement and House Speaker Mike Johnson’s support, consolidated Republican support in the crowded primary field that included Jerrod Sessler and state Sen. Matt Boehnke. Duresky, a retired Air Force major and the sole Democrat, advanced in second place but trails significantly in a district where Donald Trump carried a 14.5-point margin in 2024.
Forecasting models rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, projecting a roughly 20-point GOP margin. The district’s partisan voting index, consistent Republican performance in statewide and federal contests, and unified party backing for the nominee drive trader consensus toward the Republican outcome. National midterm dynamics and turnout patterns could influence the final margin, but structural factors in this agricultural and energy-focused district limit realistic pathways for a Democratic upset absent major late developments such as candidate-specific issues or unusual shifts in voter participation.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$50,729Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican Amanda McKinney holds a commanding position in the WA-04 general election matchup against Democrat John Duresky following the August 4, 2026, top-two primary.**
The open seat, created by longtime Republican incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement, sits in one of Washington’s most conservative districts, encompassing rural central and eastern counties including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. McKinney, a Yakima County commissioner with Trump’s endorsement and House Speaker Mike Johnson’s support, consolidated Republican support in the crowded primary field that included Jerrod Sessler and state Sen. Matt Boehnke. Duresky, a retired Air Force major and the sole Democrat, advanced in second place but trails significantly in a district where Donald Trump carried a 14.5-point margin in 2024.
Forecasting models rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, projecting a roughly 20-point GOP margin. The district’s partisan voting index, consistent Republican performance in statewide and federal contests, and unified party backing for the nominee drive trader consensus toward the Republican outcome. National midterm dynamics and turnout patterns could influence the final margin, but structural factors in this agricultural and energy-focused district limit realistic pathways for a Democratic upset absent major late developments such as candidate-specific issues or unusual shifts in voter participation.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,729Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican Amanda McKinney holds a commanding position in the WA-04 general election matchup against Democrat John Duresky following the August 4, 2026, top-two primary.** The open seat, created by longtime Republican incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement, sits in one of Washington’s most conservative districts, encompassing rural central and eastern counties including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. McKinney, a Yakima County commissioner with Trump’s endorsement and House Speaker Mike Johnson’s support, consolidated Republican support in the crowded primary field that included Jerrod Sessler and state Sen. Matt Boehnke. Duresky, a retired Air Force major and the sole Democrat, advanced in second place but trails significantly in a district where Donald Trump carried a 14.5-point margin in 2024. Forecasting models rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, projecting a roughly 20-point GOP margin. The district’s partisan voting index, consistent Republican performance in statewide and federal contests, and unified party backing for the nominee drive trader consensus toward the Republican outcome. National midterm dynamics and turnout patterns could influence the final margin, but structural factors in this agricultural and energy-focused district limit realistic pathways for a Democratic upset absent major late developments such as candidate-specific issues or unusual shifts in voter participation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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