Recent forecasts from agencies including NOAA and the Met Office indicate that a developing El Niño, with an 82% chance of emergence by mid-2026, will add to the long-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gases, positioning 2026 as the second-warmest year on record behind 2024. Current model runs project a central global mean temperature of about 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels, placing it ahead of 2023 and 2025 but unlikely to surpass the prior peak without stronger-than-expected ocean-atmosphere coupling later in the year. This consensus, supported by multi-model ensembles, explains the market-implied 57.5% probability for second place versus 35% for first, with minimal odds for lower rankings given the sustained baseline rise. Updated ENSO diagnostics and final-year temperature compilations expected through late 2026 will further refine these outlooks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOnde 2026 se classificará entre os anos mais quentes já registrados?
Onde 2026 se classificará entre os anos mais quentes já registrados?
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
6 ou inferior 2.3%
$2,820,096 Vol.
$2,820,096 Vol.
31 dez 2026
1
35%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6 ou inferior
2%
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
6 ou inferior 2.3%
$2,820,096 Vol.
$2,820,096 Vol.
31 dez 2026
1
$453,726 Vol.
35%
2
$325,807 Vol.
57%
3
$428,013 Vol.
2%
4
$416,574 Vol.
3%
5
$731,047 Vol.
1%
6 ou inferior
$464,929 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent forecasts from agencies including NOAA and the Met Office indicate that a developing El Niño, with an 82% chance of emergence by mid-2026, will add to the long-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gases, positioning 2026 as the second-warmest year on record behind 2024. Current model runs project a central global mean temperature of about 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels, placing it ahead of 2023 and 2025 but unlikely to surpass the prior peak without stronger-than-expected ocean-atmosphere coupling later in the year. This consensus, supported by multi-model ensembles, explains the market-implied 57.5% probability for second place versus 35% for first, with minimal odds for lower rankings given the sustained baseline rise. Updated ENSO diagnostics and final-year temperature compilations expected through late 2026 will further refine these outlooks.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,820,096Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent forecasts from agencies including NOAA and the Met Office indicate that a developing El Niño, with an 82% chance of emergence by mid-2026, will add to the long-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gases, positioning 2026 as the second-warmest year on record behind 2024. Current model runs project a central global mean temperature of about 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels, placing it ahead of 2023 and 2025 but unlikely to surpass the prior peak without stronger-than-expected ocean-atmosphere coupling later in the year. This consensus, supported by multi-model ensembles, explains the market-implied 57.5% probability for second place versus 35% for first, with minimal odds for lower rankings given the sustained baseline rise. Updated ENSO diagnostics and final-year temperature compilations expected through late 2026 will further refine these outlooks.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,820,096Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent forecasts from agencies including NOAA and the Met Office indicate that a developing El Niño, with an 82% chance of emergence by mid-2026, will add to the long-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gases, positioning 2026 as the second-warmest year on record behind 2024. Current model runs project a central global mean temperature of about 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels, placing it ahead of 2023 and 2025 but unlikely to surpass the prior peak without stronger-than-expected ocean-atmosphere coupling later in the year. This consensus, supported by multi-model ensembles, explains the market-implied 57.5% probability for second place versus 35% for first, with minimal odds for lower rankings given the sustained baseline rise. Updated ENSO diagnostics and final-year temperature compilations expected through late 2026 will further refine these outlooks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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