Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead first-round polling for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election by wide margins over other contenders, positioning them as the clear favorites to advance to the October 25 runoff under the two-round system. Recent surveys show Lula holding 37–40 percent and Flávio 32–37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema each below 7 percent and undecided voters near 10–13 percent. Flávio’s candidacy gained momentum after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and the former president’s ineligibility ruling, while Lula’s campaign emphasizes economic continuity and social programs amid tight simulated runoff matchups. Traders’ consensus reflects these sustained polling trends and the absence of major shifts in the fragmented opposition field ahead of formal party conventions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuais candidatos avançarão para o segundo turno presidencial do Brasil?
Quais candidatos avançarão para o segundo turno presidencial do Brasil?
$321,216 Vol.
4 out 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
84%
Flavio Bolsonaro
72%
Fernando Haddad
8%
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
Jair Bolsonaro
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
3%
$321,216 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$135,114 Vol.
84%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$20,617 Vol.
72%
Fernando Haddad
$51,472 Vol.
8%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$26,646 Vol.
4%
Jair Bolsonaro
$11,325 Vol.
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$76,048 Vol.
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead first-round polling for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election by wide margins over other contenders, positioning them as the clear favorites to advance to the October 25 runoff under the two-round system. Recent surveys show Lula holding 37–40 percent and Flávio 32–37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema each below 7 percent and undecided voters near 10–13 percent. Flávio’s candidacy gained momentum after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and the former president’s ineligibility ruling, while Lula’s campaign emphasizes economic continuity and social programs amid tight simulated runoff matchups. Traders’ consensus reflects these sustained polling trends and the absence of major shifts in the fragmented opposition field ahead of formal party conventions.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ET
Volume
$321,216Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead first-round polling for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election by wide margins over other contenders, positioning them as the clear favorites to advance to the October 25 runoff under the two-round system. Recent surveys show Lula holding 37–40 percent and Flávio 32–37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema each below 7 percent and undecided voters near 10–13 percent. Flávio’s candidacy gained momentum after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and the former president’s ineligibility ruling, while Lula’s campaign emphasizes economic continuity and social programs amid tight simulated runoff matchups. Traders’ consensus reflects these sustained polling trends and the absence of major shifts in the fragmented opposition field ahead of formal party conventions.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$321,216Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead first-round polling for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election by wide margins over other contenders, positioning them as the clear favorites to advance to the October 25 runoff under the two-round system. Recent surveys show Lula holding 37–40 percent and Flávio 32–37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema each below 7 percent and undecided voters near 10–13 percent. Flávio’s candidacy gained momentum after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and the former president’s ineligibility ruling, while Lula’s campaign emphasizes economic continuity and social programs amid tight simulated runoff matchups. Traders’ consensus reflects these sustained polling trends and the absence of major shifts in the fragmented opposition field ahead of formal party conventions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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