The National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook explicitly states no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next seven days, reinforcing trader consensus at 98.1% for "No" hurricane by May 31. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—only four May hurricanes documented in the Atlantic basin since the late 1800s—coupled with current inhibiting factors: elevated vertical wind shear from an emerging El Niño pattern, sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification in main development regions, and dry Saharan air suppressing disturbances. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen tropical wave organizing rapidly in low-shear Caribbean waters, though NHC monitoring resumes daily on May 15 with no such signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoUm furacão se formará até 31 de maio?
Um furacão se formará até 31 de maio?
Sim
$48,824 Vol.
$48,824 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Sim
$48,824 Vol.
$48,824 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook explicitly states no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next seven days, reinforcing trader consensus at 98.1% for "No" hurricane by May 31. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—only four May hurricanes documented in the Atlantic basin since the late 1800s—coupled with current inhibiting factors: elevated vertical wind shear from an emerging El Niño pattern, sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification in main development regions, and dry Saharan air suppressing disturbances. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen tropical wave organizing rapidly in low-shear Caribbean waters, though NHC monitoring resumes daily on May 15 with no such signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$48,824Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook explicitly states no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next seven days, reinforcing trader consensus at 98.1% for "No" hurricane by May 31. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—only four May hurricanes documented in the Atlantic basin since the late 1800s—coupled with current inhibiting factors: elevated vertical wind shear from an emerging El Niño pattern, sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification in main development regions, and dry Saharan air suppressing disturbances. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen tropical wave organizing rapidly in low-shear Caribbean waters, though NHC monitoring resumes daily on May 15 with no such signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$48,824Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook explicitly states no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next seven days, reinforcing trader consensus at 98.1% for "No" hurricane by May 31. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—only four May hurricanes documented in the Atlantic basin since the late 1800s—coupled with current inhibiting factors: elevated vertical wind shear from an emerging El Niño pattern, sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification in main development regions, and dry Saharan air suppressing disturbances. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen tropical wave organizing rapidly in low-shear Caribbean waters, though NHC monitoring resumes daily on May 15 with no such signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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