Apple's pursuit of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) DRAM faces steep regulatory and supply hurdles that underpin the market's strong lean toward no purchases occurring in 2026. Despite June lobbying of the Trump administration for assurances against Entity List placement—driven by AI-fueled DRAM shortages and price spikes that prompted MacBook and iPad hikes—Apple has only conducted limited testing for China-market devices, with no confirmed volume orders. CXMT's fabs run near full capacity through 2027 at competitive or higher pricing, limiting availability, while political risks from its Pentagon 1260H designation persist. Key near-term catalysts include any White House exemption decision or CXMT capacity shifts that could still alter the outcome before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Apple comprará chips de memória CXMT em 2026?
A Apple comprará chips de memória CXMT em 2026?
Sim
19% chance
$21,868 Vol.
$21,868 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
19% chance
$21,868 Vol.
$21,868 Vol.
31 dez 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple's pursuit of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) DRAM faces steep regulatory and supply hurdles that underpin the market's strong lean toward no purchases occurring in 2026. Despite June lobbying of the Trump administration for assurances against Entity List placement—driven by AI-fueled DRAM shortages and price spikes that prompted MacBook and iPad hikes—Apple has only conducted limited testing for China-market devices, with no confirmed volume orders. CXMT's fabs run near full capacity through 2027 at competitive or higher pricing, limiting availability, while political risks from its Pentagon 1260H designation persist. Key near-term catalysts include any White House exemption decision or CXMT capacity shifts that could still alter the outcome before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$21,868Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple's pursuit of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) DRAM faces steep regulatory and supply hurdles that underpin the market's strong lean toward no purchases occurring in 2026. Despite June lobbying of the Trump administration for assurances against Entity List placement—driven by AI-fueled DRAM shortages and price spikes that prompted MacBook and iPad hikes—Apple has only conducted limited testing for China-market devices, with no confirmed volume orders. CXMT's fabs run near full capacity through 2027 at competitive or higher pricing, limiting availability, while political risks from its Pentagon 1260H designation persist. Key near-term catalysts include any White House exemption decision or CXMT capacity shifts that could still alter the outcome before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$21,868Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's pursuit of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) DRAM faces steep regulatory and supply hurdles that underpin the market's strong lean toward no purchases occurring in 2026. Despite June lobbying of the Trump administration for assurances against Entity List placement—driven by AI-fueled DRAM shortages and price spikes that prompted MacBook and iPad hikes—Apple has only conducted limited testing for China-market devices, with no confirmed volume orders. CXMT's fabs run near full capacity through 2027 at competitive or higher pricing, limiting availability, while political risks from its Pentagon 1260H designation persist. Key near-term catalysts include any White House exemption decision or CXMT capacity shifts that could still alter the outcome before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions