Traders assign overwhelming probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained logistical surges, or escalatory signals from the People's Liberation Army in recent weeks. Ongoing activities remain consistent with gray-zone pressure, including normalized air defense identification zone incursions and naval patrols through mid-2026, without crossing into invasion thresholds. U.S. intelligence assessments from earlier in the year reinforced this view by finding no fixed timeline or 2027 commitment to unification by force. Taiwan's own annual defense exercises in August further underscore defensive preparations rather than imminent conflict. While a sudden miscalculation, provocative Taiwanese action, or unforeseen leadership decision could theoretically compress timelines, the short window and structural military requirements make such shifts highly improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
<1% chance
$1,902,933 Vol.
$1,902,933 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sim
<1% chance
$1,902,933 Vol.
$1,902,933 Vol.
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign overwhelming probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained logistical surges, or escalatory signals from the People's Liberation Army in recent weeks. Ongoing activities remain consistent with gray-zone pressure, including normalized air defense identification zone incursions and naval patrols through mid-2026, without crossing into invasion thresholds. U.S. intelligence assessments from earlier in the year reinforced this view by finding no fixed timeline or 2027 commitment to unification by force. Taiwan's own annual defense exercises in August further underscore defensive preparations rather than imminent conflict. While a sudden miscalculation, provocative Taiwanese action, or unforeseen leadership decision could theoretically compress timelines, the short window and structural military requirements make such shifts highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$1,902,933Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign overwhelming probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained logistical surges, or escalatory signals from the People's Liberation Army in recent weeks. Ongoing activities remain consistent with gray-zone pressure, including normalized air defense identification zone incursions and naval patrols through mid-2026, without crossing into invasion thresholds. U.S. intelligence assessments from earlier in the year reinforced this view by finding no fixed timeline or 2027 commitment to unification by force. Taiwan's own annual defense exercises in August further underscore defensive preparations rather than imminent conflict. While a sudden miscalculation, provocative Taiwanese action, or unforeseen leadership decision could theoretically compress timelines, the short window and structural military requirements make such shifts highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,902,933Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign overwhelming probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained logistical surges, or escalatory signals from the People's Liberation Army in recent weeks. Ongoing activities remain consistent with gray-zone pressure, including normalized air defense identification zone incursions and naval patrols through mid-2026, without crossing into invasion thresholds. U.S. intelligence assessments from earlier in the year reinforced this view by finding no fixed timeline or 2027 commitment to unification by force. Taiwan's own annual defense exercises in August further underscore defensive preparations rather than imminent conflict. While a sudden miscalculation, provocative Taiwanese action, or unforeseen leadership decision could theoretically compress timelines, the short window and structural military requirements make such shifts highly improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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