Russian forces continue limited offensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast near Orikhiv but have recorded no confirmed territorial gains toward the town itself in recent weeks. Ukrainian counterattacks have expanded control northwest of Orikhiv, including advances south of Novodanylivka and around Lukyanivske and Stepove, reversing earlier Russian claims in the sector. Redeployments of additional Russian motorized rifle and airborne units to support the 58th Combined Arms Army have not altered the stalemate, as Ukrainian defenses hold key approaches and long-range strikes disrupt logistics. Trader assessments reflect this slow pace of fighting, with ongoing artillery and drone activity unlikely to produce rapid movement absent a major shift in force concentration or Ukrainian reserves. Scheduled summer operations could influence timelines, though historical patterns in the direction show incremental rather than decisive changes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$282,425 Vol.
30 de junho
7%
31 de maio
5%
31 de julho
19%
$282,425 Vol.
30 de junho
7%
31 de maio
5%
31 de julho
19%
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Orikhiv is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Territory will be considered captured if any part of Orikhiv is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces continue limited offensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast near Orikhiv but have recorded no confirmed territorial gains toward the town itself in recent weeks. Ukrainian counterattacks have expanded control northwest of Orikhiv, including advances south of Novodanylivka and around Lukyanivske and Stepove, reversing earlier Russian claims in the sector. Redeployments of additional Russian motorized rifle and airborne units to support the 58th Combined Arms Army have not altered the stalemate, as Ukrainian defenses hold key approaches and long-range strikes disrupt logistics. Trader assessments reflect this slow pace of fighting, with ongoing artillery and drone activity unlikely to produce rapid movement absent a major shift in force concentration or Ukrainian reserves. Scheduled summer operations could influence timelines, though historical patterns in the direction show incremental rather than decisive changes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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