**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 78.5% reflects stalled progress toward a final U.S.-Iran agreement and UN Security Council endorsement by year-end.** A June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding outlined a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiations on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and related issues, with the explicit expectation that any final deal would receive a binding UNSC resolution. Technical talks in Switzerland produced limited results on working groups for sanctions, nuclear affairs, and monitoring, but the period ended amid renewed Iranian strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. responses, and broader escalation warnings in July. As of mid-August 2026, reports indicate ongoing diplomatic efforts yet persistent disagreements over uranium enrichment, inspection access, Hormuz transit controls, and implementation sequencing. No draft final agreement has advanced to the Council, and recent UNSC actions have instead addressed regional condemnations rather than endorsement. Key barriers include verification disputes, domestic political constraints in both capitals, and the absence of a comprehensive text meeting core requirements for sanctions termination and nuclear commitments. These factors have kept implied probabilities for timely UNSC action low, consistent with historical patterns where similar frameworks have required extended timelines or additional confidence-building steps.