Traders assign a 97.9% probability that the United States will not invade Mexico in 2026, reflecting sustained diplomatic engagement, deep economic interdependence under the USMCA framework undergoing review this year, and Mexican cooperation on fentanyl interdiction that has produced measurable reductions in flows. Rhetoric from U.S. officials in early 2026 about targeting cartels with land operations has prompted Mexican rejections of any troop deployments or sovereignty violations, with analysts viewing such statements primarily as leverage rather than indicators of imminent large-scale military action. Congressional oversight requirements, absence of broad domestic support for full-scale intervention, and institutional emphasis on bilateral security mechanisms further reinforce the current trader consensus. Limited escalatory scenarios, such as a sharp deterioration in cartel-related violence or collapse of joint operations, remain the primary variables that could still shift assessments within the remainder of the year.