The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife through targeted airstrikes and special forces raids in Caracas, followed by Delcy Rodríguez’s installation as interim president, remains the dominant factor shaping trader views on any future U.S. invasion of Venezuela. Since then, bilateral ties have normalized rapidly: diplomatic and consular relations were restored in March, select sanctions lifted, and U.S. officials have pursued oil production deals and mining access under a framework emphasizing stability and economic recovery rather than territorial control. No new escalatory deployments or offensive planning have been reported in recent weeks, while scheduled regional discussions and Venezuela’s ongoing transition process point to continued diplomatic and commercial engagement. These developments have reinforced market consensus around low near-term probability of a military offensive meeting the resolution criteria of establishing control over Venezuelan territory.