US military strikes on Caracas in early January 2026 resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife by special forces, with interim leadership passing to Delcy Rodríguez under continued US pressure and an oil-related quarantine. This followed months of naval deployments, boat interdictions, and sanctions enforcement framed around narco-trafficking. Subsequent developments include June 2026 earthquakes near the capital that worsened the humanitarian situation without prompting additional US troop deployments. Trader positioning on any full-scale invasion by a future cutoff reflects the precedent of targeted action rather than occupation, alongside administration statements on stabilization, economic recovery timelines, and limits on further involvement absent new triggers such as regime non-compliance or major security incidents.