The prospect of Democrats securing a House majority in the November 2026 midterms stands as the primary driver behind the 64 percent trader consensus that President Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions, including recent filings citing executive actions and constitutional concerns, have intensified since early 2026, while national polling shows slim majority support for impeachment proceedings among likely voters. With Republicans holding only a narrow House edge until then, traders weigh the high likelihood of a post-midterm shift enabling articles of impeachment, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and historical precedent for divided outcomes. Upcoming election results and any further legislative confrontations within the current Congress remain the key variables that could adjust this implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$62,328 Vol.
$62,328 Vol.
20 jan 2029
Sim
$62,328 Vol.
$62,328 Vol.
20 jan 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.The prospect of Democrats securing a House majority in the November 2026 midterms stands as the primary driver behind the 64 percent trader consensus that President Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions, including recent filings citing executive actions and constitutional concerns, have intensified since early 2026, while national polling shows slim majority support for impeachment proceedings among likely voters. With Republicans holding only a narrow House edge until then, traders weigh the high likelihood of a post-midterm shift enabling articles of impeachment, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and historical precedent for divided outcomes. Upcoming election results and any further legislative confrontations within the current Congress remain the key variables that could adjust this implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$62,328Data de Término
20 jan 2029Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.The prospect of Democrats securing a House majority in the November 2026 midterms stands as the primary driver behind the 64 percent trader consensus that President Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions, including recent filings citing executive actions and constitutional concerns, have intensified since early 2026, while national polling shows slim majority support for impeachment proceedings among likely voters. With Republicans holding only a narrow House edge until then, traders weigh the high likelihood of a post-midterm shift enabling articles of impeachment, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and historical precedent for divided outcomes. Upcoming election results and any further legislative confrontations within the current Congress remain the key variables that could adjust this implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$62,328Data de Término
20 jan 2029Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The prospect of Democrats securing a House majority in the November 2026 midterms stands as the primary driver behind the 64 percent trader consensus that President Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions, including recent filings citing executive actions and constitutional concerns, have intensified since early 2026, while national polling shows slim majority support for impeachment proceedings among likely voters. With Republicans holding only a narrow House edge until then, traders weigh the high likelihood of a post-midterm shift enabling articles of impeachment, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and historical precedent for divided outcomes. Upcoming election results and any further legislative confrontations within the current Congress remain the key variables that could adjust this implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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