Democrats’ strong positioning ahead of the November 2026 midterms represents the central driver behind the 67% implied probability that the House will impeach President Trump before January 2029. Multiple articles of impeachment have already been introduced on grounds including alleged corruption, abuse of executive power, and election-related statements, though Republican majorities have tabled them. Polls indicate majority public support for proceedings, while Democratic leadership has signaled impeachment would become a priority if the party regains House control. Traders view a midterm shift as the most plausible path to a simple-majority House vote, consistent with historical patterns where the opposition party pursues accountability measures after gaining seats. Current procedural barriers and Senate conviction thresholds limit near-term resolution but do not alter longer-term expectations through 2028.