Democratic gains in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 67.5% trader consensus that the House will approve articles of impeachment against President Trump before January 2029. Models currently project Democrats a strong chance of reclaiming the House, where a simple majority can advance such resolutions. Multiple articles have already been introduced in the current Republican-controlled Congress, including measures filed by Rep. Al Green in August 2026 citing actions by ICE and CBP, and earlier filings by Rep. Shri Thanedar. Public polling has shown majorities viewing grounds for impeachment as present. Traders price in the procedural reality that House control shifts the balance, while noting that Senate conviction requires a two-thirds vote and remains a separate threshold. Upcoming midterm results and any late-session developments will directly influence these implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
68% chance
$96,341 Vol.
$96,341 Vol.
19 jan 2029
Ganhe 3.25%
Sim
68% chance
$96,341 Vol.
$96,341 Vol.
19 jan 2029
Ganhe 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic gains in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 67.5% trader consensus that the House will approve articles of impeachment against President Trump before January 2029. Models currently project Democrats a strong chance of reclaiming the House, where a simple majority can advance such resolutions. Multiple articles have already been introduced in the current Republican-controlled Congress, including measures filed by Rep. Al Green in August 2026 citing actions by ICE and CBP, and earlier filings by Rep. Shri Thanedar. Public polling has shown majorities viewing grounds for impeachment as present. Traders price in the procedural reality that House control shifts the balance, while noting that Senate conviction requires a two-thirds vote and remains a separate threshold. Upcoming midterm results and any late-session developments will directly influence these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$96,341Data de Término
20 jan 2029Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic gains in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 67.5% trader consensus that the House will approve articles of impeachment against President Trump before January 2029. Models currently project Democrats a strong chance of reclaiming the House, where a simple majority can advance such resolutions. Multiple articles have already been introduced in the current Republican-controlled Congress, including measures filed by Rep. Al Green in August 2026 citing actions by ICE and CBP, and earlier filings by Rep. Shri Thanedar. Public polling has shown majorities viewing grounds for impeachment as present. Traders price in the procedural reality that House control shifts the balance, while noting that Senate conviction requires a two-thirds vote and remains a separate threshold. Upcoming midterm results and any late-session developments will directly influence these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$96,341Data de Término
20 jan 2029Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democratic gains in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 67.5% trader consensus that the House will approve articles of impeachment against President Trump before January 2029. Models currently project Democrats a strong chance of reclaiming the House, where a simple majority can advance such resolutions. Multiple articles have already been introduced in the current Republican-controlled Congress, including measures filed by Rep. Al Green in August 2026 citing actions by ICE and CBP, and earlier filings by Rep. Shri Thanedar. Public polling has shown majorities viewing grounds for impeachment as present. Traders price in the procedural reality that House control shifts the balance, while noting that Senate conviction requires a two-thirds vote and remains a separate threshold. Upcoming midterm results and any late-session developments will directly influence these implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions