Ongoing martial law, extended by Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada through early August 2026, continues to prohibit presidential elections under constitutional rules, sustaining trader consensus that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will remain in office past June 30. His formal term expired in 2024, yet Article 108 of the constitution permits incumbents to exercise powers until a successor is sworn in, a provision reinforced by repeated 90-day renewals amid active conflict. Zelenskyy has repeatedly conditioned any vote on a durable ceasefire and security guarantees, aligning with the current absence of viable removal mechanisms such as resignation or impeachment proceedings. This legal and security framework underpins the 96 percent implied probability traders assign to his continued tenure, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough enabling rapid electoral preparations or an unforeseen leadership transition could still alter the outcome within the narrow remaining window.