U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville holds commanding trader consensus at 98.6% implied probability to win Alabama's Republican gubernatorial primary on May 19, driven by recent polls showing him at 65% support amid a fragmented field including Ken McFeeters and Will Santivasci, coupled with his $12.7 million fundraising edge and statewide name recognition from his Senate incumbency and Auburn coaching legacy. A new exclusive poll reinforces this lead just days before voting, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on his path to the nomination in the open-seat race succeeding term-limited Governor Kay Ivey. Lingering residency challenges under Alabama's seven-year requirement persist, with a circuit court motion to dismiss filed by the Alabama Republican Party two days ago and a potential ruling imminent, though historical confirmation patterns favor frontrunners absent disqualifying evidence. Late scandals, health issues, or a surprise turnout surge could shift odds, but barriers remain high for challengers.