**Nick Begich III, the Republican incumbent, and independent Bill Hill stand as the clear frontrunners to advance from Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary for the at-large House seat.** Begich benefits from incumbency and established name recognition after defeating Mary Peltola in 2024, while Hill has consolidated much of the opposition through strong fundraising and endorsements following the July withdrawal of prominent challenger Matt Schultz. The nonpartisan primary and subsequent ranked-choice general election create incentives for candidates to broaden appeal early. With roughly 15 candidates filed, including additional Republicans and independents, the remaining two advancing spots remain more fluid and sensitive to late voter turnout and preference flows among lesser-known contenders. No major new polling has emerged in the final week, leaving trader focus on these established dynamics ahead of election day.