Recent polling averages ahead of the May 17 Andalusian regional election project the PSOE-A at 21–25 percent of the vote, producing seat forecasts clustered between 24 and 30 in the 109-seat parliament. This range centers trader expectations on the 27–29 bracket as the most probable outcome. The party’s position reflects persistent national headwinds and limited regional recovery under candidate María Jesús Montero, with left-wing votes further split between Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía. In contrast, the PP under Juanma Moreno holds a wide lead near or above the 55-seat absolute-majority threshold, reducing pressure on the PSOE-A to outperform its current trajectory. No major late-campaign shifts have altered these seat projections in the final days.