California's 4th Congressional District holds its top-two primary on June 2, 2026, with incumbent Mike Thompson seeking his 15th term against Democratic challenger Eric Jones and a field of six Republicans plus one independent. Thompson's long tenure, moderate record, and established fundraising position have positioned him as the clear frontrunner, while Jones has drawn attention through substantial early spending and high-profile endorsements that could consolidate progressive support. The district's heavy Democratic registration and partisan lean make it likely the top two finishers will both be Democrats, leaving Republican candidates with limited paths to advance. No major late developments have shifted the candidate lineup since filing closed in March, leaving voter turnout and final-week messaging as the remaining variables before results determine the general-election matchup.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$30,145 Объем
Майк Томпсон
97%
Эрик Джонс
90%
Хит Фулкерсон
11%
Джон Уэсли Тайлер
8%
Тревор Мэррелл
7%
Лори Маккензи
5%
Шэрон Браун
2%
Мэнди Гусар
1%
$30,145 Объем
Майк Томпсон
97%
Эрик Джонс
90%
Хит Фулкерсон
11%
Джон Уэсли Тайлер
8%
Тревор Мэррелл
7%
Лори Маккензи
5%
Шэрон Браун
2%
Мэнди Гусар
1%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...California's 4th Congressional District holds its top-two primary on June 2, 2026, with incumbent Mike Thompson seeking his 15th term against Democratic challenger Eric Jones and a field of six Republicans plus one independent. Thompson's long tenure, moderate record, and established fundraising position have positioned him as the clear frontrunner, while Jones has drawn attention through substantial early spending and high-profile endorsements that could consolidate progressive support. The district's heavy Democratic registration and partisan lean make it likely the top two finishers will both be Democrats, leaving Republican candidates with limited paths to advance. No major late developments have shifted the candidate lineup since filing closed in March, leaving voter turnout and final-week messaging as the remaining variables before results determine the general-election matchup.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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