**US sanctions on Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, imposed in early June 2026 alongside measures targeting associates and entities, reflect ongoing diplomatic and economic pressure rather than any imminent custody operation.** Díaz-Canel continues official duties in Havana with no verified indications of US detention plans materializing by June 30. The short remaining window, combined with Cuba’s geographic and institutional barriers to rapid enforcement actions, underpins traders’ 98.4% consensus on “No.” Precedent from the January 2026 Maduro operation shows targeted US moves are possible but typically require extended preparation and specific triggers absent here. Realistic factors that could still alter the outcome include an abrupt diplomatic agreement enabling transfer, a sudden escalation in US-Cuba tensions, or undisclosed legal or intelligence developments, though none appear imminent based on public reporting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$48,348 Объем
$48,348 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
$48,348 Объем
$48,348 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.**US sanctions on Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, imposed in early June 2026 alongside measures targeting associates and entities, reflect ongoing diplomatic and economic pressure rather than any imminent custody operation.** Díaz-Canel continues official duties in Havana with no verified indications of US detention plans materializing by June 30. The short remaining window, combined with Cuba’s geographic and institutional barriers to rapid enforcement actions, underpins traders’ 98.4% consensus on “No.” Precedent from the January 2026 Maduro operation shows targeted US moves are possible but typically require extended preparation and specific triggers absent here. Realistic factors that could still alter the outcome include an abrupt diplomatic agreement enabling transfer, a sudden escalation in US-Cuba tensions, or undisclosed legal or intelligence developments, though none appear imminent based on public reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ET
Объем
$48,348Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.**US sanctions on Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, imposed in early June 2026 alongside measures targeting associates and entities, reflect ongoing diplomatic and economic pressure rather than any imminent custody operation.** Díaz-Canel continues official duties in Havana with no verified indications of US detention plans materializing by June 30. The short remaining window, combined with Cuba’s geographic and institutional barriers to rapid enforcement actions, underpins traders’ 98.4% consensus on “No.” Precedent from the January 2026 Maduro operation shows targeted US moves are possible but typically require extended preparation and specific triggers absent here. Realistic factors that could still alter the outcome include an abrupt diplomatic agreement enabling transfer, a sudden escalation in US-Cuba tensions, or undisclosed legal or intelligence developments, though none appear imminent based on public reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$48,348Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US sanctions on Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, imposed in early June 2026 alongside measures targeting associates and entities, reflect ongoing diplomatic and economic pressure rather than any imminent custody operation.** Díaz-Canel continues official duties in Havana with no verified indications of US detention plans materializing by June 30. The short remaining window, combined with Cuba’s geographic and institutional barriers to rapid enforcement actions, underpins traders’ 98.4% consensus on “No.” Precedent from the January 2026 Maduro operation shows targeted US moves are possible but typically require extended preparation and specific triggers absent here. Realistic factors that could still alter the outcome include an abrupt diplomatic agreement enabling transfer, a sudden escalation in US-Cuba tensions, or undisclosed legal or intelligence developments, though none appear imminent based on public reporting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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