Prosperity Party maintains a commanding position ahead of Ethiopia’s June 1, 2026, parliamentary elections because it holds power as the incumbent governing force, controls key institutions, and faces limited organized opposition across most constituencies. Recent developments include the party’s February 2026 manifesto launch and reports that it will run unopposed in 64 districts, reinforcing its structural advantages in the first-past-the-post system. Ongoing regional conflicts in Amhara and Oromia continue to constrain opposition activities and voter mobilization in those areas. While trader consensus reflects this entrenched dominance, outcomes could shift if security deteriorates sharply before election day, if major opposition coalitions consolidate and increase turnout in contested regions, or if last-minute legal or administrative changes alter ballot access for smaller parties.