The dominant 93% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause in the April–July FOMC cycle stems primarily from the Federal Reserve’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, reinforced by May’s hotter-than-expected CPI print that elevated inflation risks and shifted derivatives pricing toward a possible hike by year-end. Persistent price pressures, combined with Middle East geopolitical uncertainty, have prompted traders to price in a cautious monetary-policy stance across the June and July meetings, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks to the dual mandate. This positioning aligns with futures markets showing minimal odds of a 25-basis-point cut before late 2027. A sharp moderation in incoming inflation readings or a material deterioration in labor-market indicators could still reopen the door to earlier easing, though such shifts would need to overcome the current hawkish tilt.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.6%
Other 3.6%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$49,042 Объем
$49,042 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.6%
Other 3.6%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$49,042 Объем
$49,042 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,607 Объем
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,665 Объем
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 Объем
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,622 Объем
1%
Other
$1,595 Объем
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant 93% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause in the April–July FOMC cycle stems primarily from the Federal Reserve’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, reinforced by May’s hotter-than-expected CPI print that elevated inflation risks and shifted derivatives pricing toward a possible hike by year-end. Persistent price pressures, combined with Middle East geopolitical uncertainty, have prompted traders to price in a cautious monetary-policy stance across the June and July meetings, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks to the dual mandate. This positioning aligns with futures markets showing minimal odds of a 25-basis-point cut before late 2027. A sharp moderation in incoming inflation readings or a material deterioration in labor-market indicators could still reopen the door to earlier easing, though such shifts would need to overcome the current hawkish tilt.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Объем
$49,042Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant 93% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause in the April–July FOMC cycle stems primarily from the Federal Reserve’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, reinforced by May’s hotter-than-expected CPI print that elevated inflation risks and shifted derivatives pricing toward a possible hike by year-end. Persistent price pressures, combined with Middle East geopolitical uncertainty, have prompted traders to price in a cautious monetary-policy stance across the June and July meetings, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks to the dual mandate. This positioning aligns with futures markets showing minimal odds of a 25-basis-point cut before late 2027. A sharp moderation in incoming inflation readings or a material deterioration in labor-market indicators could still reopen the door to earlier easing, though such shifts would need to overcome the current hawkish tilt.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$49,042Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant 93% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause in the April–July FOMC cycle stems primarily from the Federal Reserve’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, reinforced by May’s hotter-than-expected CPI print that elevated inflation risks and shifted derivatives pricing toward a possible hike by year-end. Persistent price pressures, combined with Middle East geopolitical uncertainty, have prompted traders to price in a cautious monetary-policy stance across the June and July meetings, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks to the dual mandate. This positioning aligns with futures markets showing minimal odds of a 25-basis-point cut before late 2027. A sharp moderation in incoming inflation readings or a material deterioration in labor-market indicators could still reopen the door to earlier easing, though such shifts would need to overcome the current hawkish tilt.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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