Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI data and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have reinforced inflation risks, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% during its April 29 meeting amid notable dissent. With a resilient labor market showing solid job gains and unemployment holding near 4.3%, market-implied odds heavily favor no policy shifts through the June and July FOMC meetings, aligning with the 93% consensus for Pause–Pause–Pause. Traders are pricing in a steady rate path through year-end, though a sharper labor-market slowdown or faster disinflation could still open the door for a 25-basis-point cut by July.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.2%
Other 3.4%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$49,040 Объем
$49,040 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.2%
Other 3.4%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$49,040 Объем
$49,040 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,604 Объем
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,665 Объем
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 Объем
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,622 Объем
1%
Other
$1,595 Объем
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent hotter-than-expected April CPI data and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have reinforced inflation risks, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% during its April 29 meeting amid notable dissent. With a resilient labor market showing solid job gains and unemployment holding near 4.3%, market-implied odds heavily favor no policy shifts through the June and July FOMC meetings, aligning with the 93% consensus for Pause–Pause–Pause. Traders are pricing in a steady rate path through year-end, though a sharper labor-market slowdown or faster disinflation could still open the door for a 25-basis-point cut by July.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Объем
$49,040Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent hotter-than-expected April CPI data and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have reinforced inflation risks, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% during its April 29 meeting amid notable dissent. With a resilient labor market showing solid job gains and unemployment holding near 4.3%, market-implied odds heavily favor no policy shifts through the June and July FOMC meetings, aligning with the 93% consensus for Pause–Pause–Pause. Traders are pricing in a steady rate path through year-end, though a sharper labor-market slowdown or faster disinflation could still open the door for a 25-basis-point cut by July.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$49,040Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI data and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have reinforced inflation risks, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% during its April 29 meeting amid notable dissent. With a resilient labor market showing solid job gains and unemployment holding near 4.3%, market-implied odds heavily favor no policy shifts through the June and July FOMC meetings, aligning with the 93% consensus for Pause–Pause–Pause. Traders are pricing in a steady rate path through year-end, though a sharper labor-market slowdown or faster disinflation could still open the door for a 25-basis-point cut by July.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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