Numerical weather model consensus positions Mexico City's August 15 maximum near the 26°C threshold, driving the 54.5% market-implied probability for that outcome amid the city's typical rainy-season pattern. At 2,240 meters elevation, the highland location and frequent afternoon convection from the North American monsoon moderate peak temperatures, with cloud cover and showers often capping highs around the 24–27°C range observed in recent days. Historical August averages hover near 24°C, and current guidance shows limited deviation absent stronger subsidence or clearer skies. Traders weigh these factors against short-term forecast updates from agencies like the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, which could shift probabilities if precipitation timing or intensity changes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Мехико 15 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Мехико 15 августа?
26°C 59%
25°C 21%
27°C 12%
28°C 4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 авг. 2026 г.
20°C или ниже
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
21%
26°C
59%
27°C
12%
28°C
4%
29°C
1%
30°C или выше
<1%
26°C 59%
25°C 21%
27°C 12%
28°C 4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 авг. 2026 г.
20°C или ниже
$508 Объем
<1%
21°C
$220 Объем
<1%
22°C
$245 Объем
1%
23°C
$457 Объем
1%
24°C
$946 Объем
3%
25°C
$524 Объем
21%
26°C
$970 Объем
59%
27°C
$2,276 Объем
12%
28°C
$412 Объем
4%
29°C
$302 Объем
1%
30°C или выше
$481 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather model consensus positions Mexico City's August 15 maximum near the 26°C threshold, driving the 54.5% market-implied probability for that outcome amid the city's typical rainy-season pattern. At 2,240 meters elevation, the highland location and frequent afternoon convection from the North American monsoon moderate peak temperatures, with cloud cover and showers often capping highs around the 24–27°C range observed in recent days. Historical August averages hover near 24°C, and current guidance shows limited deviation absent stronger subsidence or clearer skies. Traders weigh these factors against short-term forecast updates from agencies like the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, which could shift probabilities if precipitation timing or intensity changes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Объем
$7,342Дата окончания
15 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather model consensus positions Mexico City's August 15 maximum near the 26°C threshold, driving the 54.5% market-implied probability for that outcome amid the city's typical rainy-season pattern. At 2,240 meters elevation, the highland location and frequent afternoon convection from the North American monsoon moderate peak temperatures, with cloud cover and showers often capping highs around the 24–27°C range observed in recent days. Historical August averages hover near 24°C, and current guidance shows limited deviation absent stronger subsidence or clearer skies. Traders weigh these factors against short-term forecast updates from agencies like the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, which could shift probabilities if precipitation timing or intensity changes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$7,342Дата окончания
15 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Numerical weather model consensus positions Mexico City's August 15 maximum near the 26°C threshold, driving the 54.5% market-implied probability for that outcome amid the city's typical rainy-season pattern. At 2,240 meters elevation, the highland location and frequent afternoon convection from the North American monsoon moderate peak temperatures, with cloud cover and showers often capping highs around the 24–27°C range observed in recent days. Historical August averages hover near 24°C, and current guidance shows limited deviation absent stronger subsidence or clearer skies. Traders weigh these factors against short-term forecast updates from agencies like the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, which could shift probabilities if precipitation timing or intensity changes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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