Forecast uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the near-tie between 84-85°F (35.5%) and 82-83°F (34.0%) implied probabilities for New York City's highest temperature on August 28. Ensemble guidance from NOAA and other agencies shows a tight cluster of solutions in the low-to-mid 80s, with small differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and warm-air advection from the southwest determining whether readings peak slightly higher or lower. Historical late-August climatology for the region centers near 82°F, providing context for why outcomes outside 80-87°F carry low probability. Updated model runs and local observations will narrow the spread before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Нью-Йорке 28 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Нью-Йорке 28 августа?
84-85°F 36%
82-83°F 34%
86-87°F 15%
80-81°F 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
28 авг. 2026 г.
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
34%
84-85°F
36%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
4%
90°F or higher
1%
84-85°F 36%
82-83°F 34%
86-87°F 15%
80-81°F 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
28 авг. 2026 г.
71°F or below
$218 Объем
<1%
72-73°F
$263 Объем
<1%
74-75°F
$80 Объем
1%
76-77°F
$145 Объем
3%
78-79°F
$1 Объем
5%
80-81°F
$619 Объем
11%
82-83°F
$592 Объем
34%
84-85°F
$373 Объем
36%
86-87°F
$612 Объем
15%
88-89°F
$57 Объем
4%
90°F or higher
$82 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the near-tie between 84-85°F (35.5%) and 82-83°F (34.0%) implied probabilities for New York City's highest temperature on August 28. Ensemble guidance from NOAA and other agencies shows a tight cluster of solutions in the low-to-mid 80s, with small differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and warm-air advection from the southwest determining whether readings peak slightly higher or lower. Historical late-August climatology for the region centers near 82°F, providing context for why outcomes outside 80-87°F carry low probability. Updated model runs and local observations will narrow the spread before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 26, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Объем
$3,041Дата окончания
28 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 8:56 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the near-tie between 84-85°F (35.5%) and 82-83°F (34.0%) implied probabilities for New York City's highest temperature on August 28. Ensemble guidance from NOAA and other agencies shows a tight cluster of solutions in the low-to-mid 80s, with small differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and warm-air advection from the southwest determining whether readings peak slightly higher or lower. Historical late-August climatology for the region centers near 82°F, providing context for why outcomes outside 80-87°F carry low probability. Updated model runs and local observations will narrow the spread before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$3,041Дата окончания
28 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 8:56 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the near-tie between 84-85°F (35.5%) and 82-83°F (34.0%) implied probabilities for New York City's highest temperature on August 28. Ensemble guidance from NOAA and other agencies shows a tight cluster of solutions in the low-to-mid 80s, with small differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and warm-air advection from the southwest determining whether readings peak slightly higher or lower. Historical late-August climatology for the region centers near 82°F, providing context for why outcomes outside 80-87°F carry low probability. Updated model runs and local observations will narrow the spread before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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